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[NL20-NL50] AQ, NL50, Rush

    • slimy3
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 2,444
      Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1215727
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $27.15
      SB: $127.80
      BB: $53.00
      UTG: $29.95
      UTG+1: $53.80
      UTG+2: $54.85
      Hero (MP1): $51.85
      MP2: $58.40
      CO: $30.20

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with A :diamond: Q :heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) A :heart: 4 :heart: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO raises to $8, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

      12/9/5.6/1.6/43 (VPIP/PFR/3B/AF/WTSD) after ~700 hands

      All A:hX is out of V's range, Q:hJ, K:hQ are also out. It leaves a few number of FD's. Can V be raising with AJ/AT? I really doubt it because of his low AF and high WTSD. For sure he is raising sets and even if he raising 5:h6 or some random FD's (what doesn't have a high probability because of his AF) so... I can't call his bet. It might looks like a weak-tight fold but I think it's a good one.
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If he has 5.6% 3-bet he woudl very likely 3-bet with AK and I doubt he is calling pf A4/A3, so that leaves 44/33 and likely a lot of flushdraws that he is raising on the flop, even if he doesn´t raise for value AK/AQ, so instead of folding I´d likely shove for value
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello slimy3,

      While it's rush then I don't think that such an opponent would raise there very often with flushdraws or either AJ, AT type of hands. Weaker aces he usually would just Call and not play that aggressively, those kind of opponents are just doing that and as well rather playing passively with their draws. 1,5 is just too small to expect them to do that kind of raise there with draw and as well the raise seems to be some kind of way strong. Looks like he is planning to go broke anyways there and I rather say that I like your Bet/Fold there unless you as well give the stats on him like raise CBet and etc but while he seems to be rather straight forward player I am as well folding.

      Best regards.