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[NL20-NL50] QJs, NL50, Rush - good spot to bluff?

    • slimy3
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 2,444
      Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1215728
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $21.60
      UTG: $47.10
      UTG+1: $52.65
      Hero (UTG+2): $50.00
      MP1: $50.00
      MP2: $15.50
      CO: $70.80
      BTN: $20.10
      SB: $19.90

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with Q :heart: J :heart:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, Hero calls $1, MP1 raises to $4.75, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

      Flop: ($15.00) 7 :heart: 2 :diamond: 4 :diamond: (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, MP1 checks

      Turn: ($15.00) 2 :spade: (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $10, MP1 calls $10, UTG+1 folds

      River: ($35.00) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $35.25 all in, MP1 folds

      UTG+1: 14/9 (VPIP/PFR) after 2.5k hands
      MP1: 11/8/5.4 (VPIP/PFR/3B) after ~350 hands

      Before the flop I was tilting - I should have fold preflop.

      On the flop I turn on check/fold mode, but... it was check around. I woke up and start thinking (finally!). If MP1 likes his hand he would defenitley bet the flop. If UTG+1 has a pair he would defenitley bet the turn. So... no one has anything and I can steal the pot. 2 is not the greatest card to do it beacuse it makes harder to hit a set but I put MP1 on OC so it doesn't matter. He called my turn bet and I decided to bluff river because his range looks really weak. Even if he has some sort of pair he don't wanna stacking with.

      Is my thought process correct?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think MP1 likely went to pot control some kind of middle pair hand or really checked back AK/AQ. He would fold sometimes to your river shove, since you have that spot all the sets and sometimes TT/JJ/88 that you´re shoving for value
      So I think he would fold there AK/AQ and maybe also sometimews 7x and weaker hands, so shove should be profitable