[NL2-NL10] NL10 MSS KJ turn CB

    • Tommino
      Tommino
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2007 Posts: 169
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $5.06
      BB:
      $5.46
      MP1:
      $13.19
      MP2 (Hero):
      $4.00
      MP3:
      $8.50
      CO:
      $7.39
      BU:
      $1.22


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, K.
      MP1 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.65) 2, Q, 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.35, BB calls $0.35.

      Turn: ($1.35) T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero ?

      Villain is 100/25 after 24 hands.
      2nd barrel or not?
      Without the OESD I'm giving up but now I'm not sure.
  • 5 replies
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      What better hand is folding or what weaker hand is calling?
    • Tommino
      Tommino
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2007 Posts: 169
      He has 100% VPIP after 24 hands, surely we can find hands he will fold :) Even if we give him only reasonable range he folds 66-99.
    • mineriva
      mineriva
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Ok but would it not be better to check for the free card? We have many good rivers which we can thin value bet in our favour.

      If he has 99 and the river is 9d!

      On the other hand there are some rivers we can bluff. I know I know bet-check-bet is a bad bluf line but IMHO not against a callingstation that folds many rivers
    • Tommino
      Tommino
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2007 Posts: 169
      Well I don't know. imo with 100 VPIP guy we could have quite some fold-equity I guess + we have like 10-11 discounted outs.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well we need more stats than 100% VPIP to determine an accurate/decent enough sized FEQ% to get a +EV 2nd barrel here

      I need to know AF, AFq, WTSD, WWSF, PFR, c/R% etc.

      But in general I will barrel if you make it that small on the Flop yes


      - Gerv