All-in EV vs $EV in aggro games

    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      hey hey, ive been thinking about some stuff and i'd like to get some clarification on smth I have been thinking about. for starters im not on about 'allin ev is bullshit it doesnt show coolers etc' totally not my point what so ever. this is my point:

      in aggro games, I can assume that someone will 4b me with quite a polarised range. vs someone who is not balanced in this polarised range, they stack off quite tight say: QQ+/AK but 4b wayyyy more than just this (so I know they are tending towards bluffs) its super profitable for me to be shoving all pairs etc, because even though im behind this range we have sicko fold EQ vs such a range, so its great +EV spot.

      So my point is, is it actually possible to have a preflop AI-EV that is completely negative, but actually the $-EV is positive?

      Just something I've been thinking about.
  • 5 replies
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Probably should have posted this in NL strategy section
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      yes if you're running into his QQ+ all the time ur $EV will be negative...

      and if u filter hands for when ur called only then that'll be super -EV too.

      not sure exactly what ur asking for
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Well it depends very much on particular opponent imho. You gotta have very goods reads to make this move +EV including FE. But against standard (no matter how aggro) opponent it's big -EV I'd say.
      Of course if we're talking about super aggro donks then 5bet shove with TT might even be a value shove :f_biggrin:
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      My point isn't getting 88 or TT in good vs him, because if we are then he has most likely adapted a depolarised range which abs fkin crushed us if we are 3b/5b jamming all pairs. Im not talking abt micros btw they just arn't aggro enough, im just wondering about the theory of some higher games.

      Ihufa my point is that even though we get in vs his QQ+/AK with our 22-JJ, our $EV will be positive whilst our allin EV will be negative right? Because if he has unbalanced polarised range then he is bluffing more than he is value raising, in which case he folds super often. If we 3b 10bb and he 4b to 25bb, then a good percentage of the time we take down net +25bb right? And when he calls we have 35% EQ vs his value range. So bc we get in with 35% EQ our PFAIEV is going to be negative (bc we don't actually get the odds to get it in), however we are still going to make $ and have +$EV right?

      Is this the right thinking? Or am I just spewing math in my head?
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      that's completely correct