[NL20-NL50] 99nl 10

    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      [quote]Napisane przez deivid2
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.05)
      BB ($11.05)
      UTG ($8.10)
      UTG+1 ($7.70)
      CO ($25.10)
      Hero ($28.80)

      Dealt to Hero 9:heart: 9:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.90, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.05, fold, fold, UTG raises to $8.10 (AI), Hero calls $5.05


      26/20/3.6/7.5 3bet 138h

      i 3bet becouse if i call this hand play horrible vs shorstack on flop, but when i 3b i thinks he fold 40% hands and shoves this range

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 56.137% 55.37% 00.77% 483510048 6722076.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
      Hand 1: 43.863% 43.09% 00.77% 376320840 6722076.00 { 99 }

      so i have eV+ call.
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, easy call and I´d also 3-bet that spot with 99
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      but this isn't EV- play???

      He open 11%
      Shove vs 3bet {TT+, AQ+} 4,7%


      57% * 1,25$ (FE * dead money) if fold = 0,71$

      43% * (16,55$ * 37% (our equity) - 8,1$) = -0,85$

      EV= - 0,14$/h

      TT+, AJ+ 5,9%

      47% * 1,25= 0,58

      53% * (16,55 * 40% - 8,1) =-0,78

      EV= -0,2

      TT+,88,ATs+,AJo+ for this range EV=0,01

      so this isn't spewy play????
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Well I think it is rather question if you´re ahead his opening range and should 3-bet or rather call and play postflop. I think folding against that aggro player is a littlebit too nit.

      Against 11% you´re a littlebit behind and can consider just calling:
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 49.13% 683,440,884 16,071,900
      11% 50.87% 708,001,104 16,071,900

      To then decide if you want to raise and play for stacks or play it safe and call once and then fold to turn barrel.

      If he opens wider, like 15%, then you´re ahead and 3-bet to protect your equity and get more money to the pot with best hand

      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 52.79% 994,038,384 18,538,116
      15% 47.21% 888,080,940 18,538,116

      Either way if you 3-bet and he shoves you get almost 2.4:1 that means you should almost call with any two hand that you´re 3-betting and 99 is definitely strong enough to call shove

      I would definitely like 3-bet at your spot, since he would not shove there QJ, JTs, KJ that all has a lot of equity against your 99, so very often you take pot down pf and if you get against his top of his range, you still have 41% equity that isn´t too bad consider all the dead money in the pot

      99 41.33% 286,576,428 12,813,360
      AQ-AK,88-AA 58.67% 409,504,068 12,813,360
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      so when i 3bet formula been

      43% (16,55 * 37% - 5,5) = ?????

      or i miss this things.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by deivid2
      so when i 3bet formula been

      43% (16,55 * 37% - 5,5) = ?????

      or i miss this things.
      No, you still use the full stack of his and not how much you have invested. You have to take into account that at the beginning before you raise. Therefore you need like 50% equity there vs his range to make it profitable. But while you as well sometimes even have fold equity there, it's very close, if you rather consider him going broke there with any hand he raised from UTG, then I am more often thinking that this should be -EV. Although when he has a bigger range which he is raising from UTG, then it should be even somehow possible to go broke there as well.

      But when you decide to 3bet there then it as well means that you planning to go broke against his stack if you don't want to go broke then rather just fold it. And for example if you even have loose opponents on blinds then you can sometimes even easily consider calling for set value if you see the blinds joining into the play as well.