Calculation of long term outcome

    • G1lius
      G1lius
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.10.2007 Posts: 308
      We've been calculating this with 3 people for the last hour, and nobody seems to agree to the other ones method.

      How it started:
      "How do you play your draws?"
      "I usually bet them out, except if there are a lot of opponents or calling stations"
      "I bet some smallish amount against calling-stations, to fill the pot if I hit"

      I don't like the sound of it, since I would say it's better to get a free card then to pay for it.
      But I've tried to calculate this, and I can't seem to get it right.

      situation is this:
      you limp preflop, hit a OESD, villian can only call or check.
      How do I callculate it with no flopbet, and with a flopbet of 1/4 pot?

      It properbly sounds stupid, but I keep cracking my mind over it.

      [edit:changed the topic-title]
  • 3 replies
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      seems to me like you should take the free card(s). If your opponent calls every bet (including an overbet should you hit), you're better off waiting till you hit the draw, then bet. Just bet made hands against calling stations.
    • G1lius
      G1lius
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.10.2007 Posts: 308
      It's not really a discussion on what to do, allthough I like your input.

      I just wanted to calculate if it's really 'more profitable' to build a pot, if he folds a bet when you do hit.
      Just some theory...

      My idea was:

      total pot*32= X1
      BB+bet*68= X2

      X1-X2= profit with minor bet

      total pot*32= X1
      BB*68= X2

      X1-X2= profit with no bet

      32/68 because you win 32% and lose 68%
      But I think I'm making a mistake somewhere cause pushing would be +EV with this calculation...
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      true, it was kind of off-topic ^^
      how about this: Pot*32/100 = part of the pot you'll win on average. Relative to the pot your winnings will be the same, so bet to make it bigger?
      Not sure about this though, I'm a bit tired :D
      EDIT:
      If it's 2 handed and you have only 32% chance to win, it would be -EV to put half the money in, right? you'll need 2 other calling stations minimum to make it profitable to bet ^^