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[NL2-NL10] Nl25 Mss Ak

    • Tommino
      Tommino
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2007 Posts: 169
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1:
      $17.01
      MP2:
      $5.41
      MP3 (Hero):
      $10.35
      CO:
      $26.97
      BU:
      $27.57
      SB:
      $8.88
      BB:
      $25.57
      UTG2:
      $88.98


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K.
      UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.87, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.62.

      Flop: ($2.09) 2, 6, K (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP1 raises to $4.00, Hero ?.

      Villain 14/12 AF 3, 65 hands
      Should I fold here? If I give him range of 22,66,9s8s-JsTs I'm pretty crushed. If I give him some pure bluffs maybe with 33-55 my equity is a lot better. But I probably will get no more bets from those pure bluffs as he will most likely give up on turn, whereas I will loose whole stack when I'm behind.
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      In the PDF one see that in all cases (drawy, 2+ opponents, 1 opponent) , one has to bet/fold Flop here

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      I would make your preflop raise 4xbb+1xbb (or 3xbb+1xbb)
      Now you gave him a good price to call

      Don't see how you are crushed You need ~37% EQ for the push

      Wide range:
      ------------Equity-----Win--------Tie----------Loss Hand
      Player 1: 56,690 % 49,126 % 15,128 % 35,746 % AcKs
      Player 2: 43,310 % 35,746 % 15,128 % 49,126 % 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo

      Tight range:
      ------------Equity-----Win--------Tie---------Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,798 % 53,475 % 0,646 % 45,879 % AcKs
      Player 2: 46,202 % 45,879 % 0,646 % 53,475 % 66, 22, AsTs, KQs, KQo

      If he only raises sets your crushed:
      ------------Equity-----Win--------Tie--------Loss Hand
      Player 1: 6,313 % 6,313 % 0,000 % 93,687 % AcKs
      Player 2: 93,687 % 93,687 % 0,000 % 6,313 % 66, 22

      T
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Gerv,

      Are you sure we want to bet/fold TPTK here against fish (derived from stack size)??

      Are my ranges so far off? The more FD's or Kx in his range the better our EQ becomes.

      Thanks,

      T.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey guys,

      I'm not sure what PDF is Gerv referring to or what his thoughts are here, so I will leave this unjudged for him, but he is unavailable at the moment and should be back in few days.

      In my opinion, if villain is a 14/12 regular he will have a set here 90+% of the time, however, after only 65 hands I think going broke would still be my play, because if he has any worse K in his range, going broke already becomes acceptable and if you add some draws here, you get an +EV spot.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      Well this is the link:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sss/1854/2/

      I dont believe a 14/12 reg will limp/call OOP with a 22 or 66 and he has a stack of 54xbb so pretty sure he is fishy.

      Lets wait for Gerv then :f_biggrin:

      T.
    • tryhardnoob
      tryhardnoob
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2010 Posts: 1,287
      Originally posted by Tampaloeres81
      Hi,

      I would make your preflop raise 4xbb+1xbb (or 3xbb+1xbb)
      Now you gave him a good price to call

      Don't see how you are crushed You need ~37% EQ for the push

      Wide range:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 56,690 % 49,126 % 15,128 % 35,746 % AcKs
      Player 2: 43,310 % 35,746 % 15,128 % 49,126 % 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KQs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo

      Tight range:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,798 % 53,475 % 0,646 % 45,879 % AcKs
      Player 2: 46,202 % 45,879 % 0,646 % 53,475 % 66, 22, AsTs, KQs, KQo

      If he only raises sets your crushed:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 6,313 % 6,313 % 0,000 % 93,687 % AcKs
      Player 2: 93,687 % 93,687 % 0,000 % 6,313 % 66, 22

      T
      Hi Tampaloeres81 I want to say first off you are doing awesome with all ur responses on the MSS stuff. And second I have a question. about this "Tight range:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,798 % 53,475 % 0,646 % 45,879 % AcKs
      Player 2: 46,202 % 45,879 % 0,646 % 53,475 % 66, 22, AsTs, KQs, KQo
      "
      What does it mean? That here AcKs will win 53,7%, tie 53,4% and lose 0,646%????? and then "Hand" 45,8%. Sorry for bothering but can you please explain this abit more. It would help out so much. If anyone else see this plz explain thanks.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I only think he will c/r K:sQ, K:sT K:sJ at best versus 22-66-KK,KQs(?)
      So that means your hand is most of the times superdupercrushed


      Ehrm no it ties 0.64% and you can calculate the losing part by substracting your equity% from 100%. Or just look 1 row lower ;)