[NL2-NL10] JJ nl10 fold OP

    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.25)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($3.50)
      UTG+1 ($11.65)
      Hero ($10.26)
      BTN ($6.88)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, SB calls $1.05, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.75

      FLOP ($3.40) 6:club: 7:club: 3:club:

      SB checks, UTG+1 bets $3.40, Hero raises to $9.16 (AI), SB folds, UTG+1 calls $5.76



      F: i have reads if he donkpots he get monster so here he must have set so my shove here is super EV-

      0,35*21,45 - 9,16 = -1,66 so this play is horrible :)
  • 5 replies
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      aw man what a hand.
      its pretty difficult. preflop i like the 3bet and probly expect him to 4bet or shove aces, kings or queens here (unless he slowplays it, but really he shouldnt with so much dead money in the pot)

      on the flop i guess u have to go with ur read. fold is probably best. i agree that donking potsize usually means really strong hand like flush or set. but its pretty close if u think he can also do this with 88 to TT or strong draws
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello deivid2,

      Preflop: Depends a lot on the opponent against tight players I even sometimes just Call here and reevaluate on further streets. Although while he is opening a lot of hands then 3betting is totally fine.
      Postflop: I guess I am just folding this hand while I see his pot size donk pretty strong, could easily be a set which tries to protect from FD. And of course we are in multiway pot, therefore we have to consider this donk being a very strong move, I just don't see him doing that with a lot worse like TT, 99 unless I have reads on him.

      Best regards.
    • Meemawuk
      Meemawuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      I'm confused. If we put sets in his range, he can easily have 88/99/TT with a club here.

      This was my calculation:

      Player 1: 50.548 % QQ, TsTc, ThTc, TdTc, 9s9c, 9h9c, 9d9c, 8s8c, 8h8c, 8d8c, 77-66, 33, AcKc, AcQc

      Player 2: 49.452 % JdJc

      I wouldnt fold here and I prefer a shove rather than a call whilst your equity is at its highest against his range (because there are a lot of difficult turns). He can still call with worse.
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      depends, with that read its pretty much a fold, without it, he might even have some Ackx AcQx, so then our equity is good
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Meemawuk
      I'm confused. If we put sets in his range, he can easily have 88/99/TT with a club here.

      This was my calculation:

      Player 1: 50.548 % QQ, TsTc, ThTc, TdTc, 9s9c, 9h9c, 9d9c, 8s8c, 8h8c, 8d8c, 77-66, 33, AcKc, AcQc

      Player 2: 49.452 % JdJc

      I wouldnt fold here and I prefer a shove rather than a call whilst your equity is at its highest against his range (because there are a lot of difficult turns). He can still call with worse.
      You aren't considering the fact that we are in 3bet pot and he as well has to take our range very strong and I don't really expect them to play 99,TT that aggressively, by that I mean bet pot size which indicates they are wanting to go broke.