[NL2-NL10] AA vs 8J

    • russo79
      russo79
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 30
      Context: I got pocket aces two times in a row.
      According to SSS, after the first time I won, I should have leaved the table (> 25BB), but when I saw those aces comming again...

      Did I play bad? Does the statistics and probabilities laws made that pocket aces can't win two times in a row?

      Absolute Life Poker Rachyrae 0.05/0.1, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

      saw flop | saw showdown

      Button ($13.55)
      SB SB ($3.34)
      BB ($0.8)
      UTG UTG ($11.25)
      UTG+1 ($9.4)
      MP ($1.7)
      MP ($1.5)
      MP ($2.04)
      CO-1 Hero ($3.07)
      CO ($3.79)

      Preflop: Hero is in the CO-1 with A:club: A:heart:
      UTG raises to 0.2, 2 folds, MP calls 0.2, 1 fold, Hero raises to 0.8, 2 folds, SB calls 0.75, 1 fold, UTG calls 0.6, 1 fold.

      Flop (2.70) 4:heart: 8:heart: 7:club:
      SB checks, UTG bets 0.4, Hero moves all-in for 2.27, SB calls 2.27, 1 fold.

      Turn (7.64) K:heart:

      River (7.64) 8:spade:

      Hero shows A:club: A:heart:
      SB shows 8:diamond: J:heart:

      SB wins 7.64 with Three of a kind, Eight's
  • 6 replies
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      No, nh, next few times it will be yours
    • russo79
      russo79
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 30
      I mean if i got pocket aces twice in a row, does the maths behind poker make that my chances to win go down?

      And according to the strategy I should have leaved the table. Next time this happens (not soon i think) should I leave the table, or should I play the hand even if i have more than 25BB? The odds are still good for me with that stack?
    • frzl
      frzl
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2006 Posts: 9,876
      first of all: nh :)

      Originally posted by russo79
      I mean if i got pocket aces twice in a row, does the maths behind poker make that my chances to win go down?
      absolutely not

      And according to the strategy I should have leaved the table. Next time this happens (not soon i think) should I leave the table, or should I play the hand even if i have more than 25BB? The odds are still good for me with that stack?
      when you reach the 25bb mark you should leave the table as soon as you would have to post the bb again. if you are not sure how to play with a bigger stack you can fold anything but AA and KK... when you get a bit more experience you can loosen up a little.
      and yes: it was correct to play the hand. it´s NEVER EVER correct to fold AA preflop in a cashgame.


      when the money went in on the flop you were about 4 to 1 favourite and thats everything that counts... in the long run you will win a lot of money from people who play that bad (his preflop call is absolutely horrible and the flop call is bad too)
    • bleemo
      bleemo
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 43
      Tuff beat..

      what do you expect .. mansion likes to hand out the donkypunches
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      On x hand in a row, as, all of them is independent, its possible to get X ( x could be any number ) in a row beats. There is no correspondance between the actual, and the hand before, so if you lose this hand against J8, next time you face your AA vs J8 you wont have better chance to win.

      I got a 900 hand session lost 6 AA's in a row not lately.
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      You played absolutely correct here. When you got Aces and have an Overpair on the Flop, you are All-In with 2:1 Pot Odds against 2 opponents.

      Mathematically the chance to lose with your Aces, when you got them twice in a row is not changing. The chance to loose against one opponent in the first case is as high as in the next case, if you play against one opponent.

      Its also correct to leave the table, when you sit with more than 25BB at it. But we are always waiting with leaving, before we have to pay the blinds again, this their is a chance, that we got QQ, KK, or like you got, Aces again.