[NL20-NL50] 25 sh range evaluation on the river

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      Hero (CO) ($57.02)
      Button ($25)
      SB ($47.35)
      BB ($51.32)
      UTG ($25.35)
      MP ($10.04)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 9
      2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.75) 8, 9, 5 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

      Turn: ($4.25) Q (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($4.25) 4 (2 players)
      SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

      Total pot: $10.25 | Rake: $0.51

      As I know it I need >=29% eq for this move to be profitable.

      Opp is 37/23 with 2.8 Af, 4.3 3bet, over 50 hands

      Trying to construct a range for him I end up with something like this : {99-55,A9s-A8s,A5s,KQs,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,86s+,76s,64s+,54s,KdQs,KdQc,KsQd,KsQc,KcQd,KcQs,JdTh,JdTs,JhTd,JhTs,JsTd,JsTh}

      Basically 99-55 6 combos of KQo and 6 of JTo and lots of suited connecters, broadways type hands + many suited connecters.

      I end up having 35% eq vs this range so I my call is a good one after this analysis.

      I would like to have your opinion as well.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      don´t think he would just floating this flop just with two overcards without no gutshot. He may call with QJs on the flop, but he´d likely c/r or fold KQ on this flop.
      Since you checked back flop I think river call is reasonable, since he can also have there a lot of pp-s that he might bet for value. But being deep I don´t think he´d c/r you with worse hands, so I´d bet/fold turn again for value and then take my free showdown on the river