Current Pot Odds vs What You've Already Invested

    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      >
      Note: Please disregard my post(s) below. I am way overtired and not thinking straight. Thanks. Maybe this thread should be locked. :s_o:

      Greetings all,

      In the hand I present below I thought that my opponent was making a poor call by calling my Steal Reraise. The reason is because he would be calling $945.00 into a pot that is only $1545.00. His call is 61% of the pot size while he only has a 57% chance to win.

      However, :f_o: I just realized that if my opponent counts all of the money he has added to the pot thus far, in reality he is only spending a little less than 50% of the pot size (due to the blinds) while having the chance to win 57% of the time.

      Sadly, :s_mad: this is not a concept that I have understood until this moment, despite playing Poker on and off for the last year. I have just been following the Pokerstrategy odds chart and making a decision at each individual street based on what the chart says. I have not taken into consideration the money I already added to the pot preflop and on prior streets.

      I believe that back when I began playing that I did take the money already added into consideration, but I posted in a different forum at that time and was told that Pot Odds are based individually per street and so I changed my method. :s_cry:

      Anyway, I am hoping I can get some responses from other people who do not currently understand this concept and some explanations on how it's done, from those that do know.

      Thanks!

      Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: 2,335.00
      BTN: 6,590.00
      SB: 3,390.00
      Hero (BB): 1,185.00

      SB posts SB 40.00, Hero posts BB 80.00

      Pre Flop: (120.00) Hero has A:heart: Q:club:

      UTG raises to 240.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,185.00 and is all-in, UTG calls 945.00

      Flop: (2410.00, 2 players) 7:spade: 3:club: 2:diamond:

      Turn: (2410.00, 2 players) 5:club:

      River: (2410.00, 2 players) 2:club:

      UTG shows T:heart: T:spade: (Two Pair, Tens and Twos) (PreFlop 57%, Flop 74%, Turn 77%)
      Hero shows A:heart: Q:club: (One Pair, Twos) (PreFlop 43%, Flop 26%, Turn 23%)
      UTG wins 2,410.00
  • 11 replies
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      I just found this quote online:

      We should probably clarify one thing. A lot of players want to somehow factor in money they wagered on previous rounds. With the last example, you probably had already invested a significant portion of that $40 pot. Let’s say $10. Does that mean you should play or fold because of that money you already have in there? $10/$40? That’s a big no no. That’s not your money anymore! It’s in a pool of money to be given to the winner. You have no “stake” in that pot. The only stake you might have is totally mental and has no bearing on hard statistics.

      But come on, in the example hand I gave it is clearly visible that my opponent invested less than 50% of the Pot Size with a hand that wins 57% of the time. Surely the money he invested prior to his $945 call should be taken into account.

      Thoughts?
    • gsergiul
      gsergiul
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2010 Posts: 234
      "Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players"
      There you have your answer.
      Do you think these guys calculate the pot odds of every pot?
      And even if he had good pot odds for a coinflip that would be BEST CASE SCENARIO.
      He's flipping AT BEST vs your range. So yes he's a moron get over it :)
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Originally posted by gsergiul
      "Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players"
      There you have your answer.
      Do you think these guys calculate the pot odds of every pot?
      And even if he had good pot odds for a coinflip that would be BEST CASE SCENARIO.
      He's flipping AT BEST vs your range. So yes he's a moron get over it :)
      Well it was my opinion that the guy was a donk also, but when I got the hand reviewed the hand reviewer here said: "Standard play from both sides." That got me wondering how the play could be standard from my opponent's side. Then I noticed the mathematical reality that he paid less than 50% of the Pot to win 57% of the time.
    • Sandwind
      Sandwind
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.12.2010 Posts: 67
      many fish around here
      u have played for a year and u have no idea what handrange means
      also the guy with flipping that is a standard call with TT and shoving AQ there is also standard
      good play by both players
      have fun guys
    • Sandwind
      Sandwind
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.12.2010 Posts: 67
      if u want me to elaborate send a pm
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by gsergiul
      "Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players"
      There you have your answer.
      Do you think these guys calculate the pot odds of every pot?
      And even if he had good pot odds for a coinflip that would be BEST CASE SCENARIO.
      He's flipping AT BEST vs your range. So yes he's a moron get over it :)

      Hero is only 15BB deep. villain has more then 30. Imo calling TT there really isn't that bad at all. Or do you wait for AK when your down to 4BB ? Your ahead against A ton of hands.. all pocket pairs below TT. and Ax hands with a 10 kicker or lower. Your also slightly ahead vs overcards and are only in a really bad spot vs 4 hands (JJ,QQ,KK,AA).

      haven't played sng's in a long time. But i don't see how you could call him a moron when hes ahead vs a ton of hands that might be in his range and also bluffs.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      Originally posted by gsergiul
      "Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players"
      There you have your answer.
      Do you think these guys calculate the pot odds of every pot?
      And even if he had good pot odds for a coinflip that would be BEST CASE SCENARIO.
      He's flipping AT BEST vs your range. So yes he's a moron get over it :)
      Flipping at best? Lol.. Hero can easily have smaller pocket pair. This is not a cash game. Hero has about 12 bbs. Calling with TT is ultra standart and i'd never fold them in this spot.
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Originally posted by Sandwind
      many fish around here
      u have played for a year and u have no idea what handrange means
      also the guy with flipping that is a standard call with TT and shoving AQ there is also standard
      good play by both players
      have fun guys
      Well, like I said I have played "off and on" and only in the micro stakes. I understand what handranges mean to an extent. I am about to install that Equilab program and begin to learn them in depth. What I have done thus far is to judge by how often my opponent raises as to what the quality of his hand is. If he raises crazy often then I will drop my hand requirements down from the Starting Hands Chart. If he raises very rarely I will only reraise with AA-KK-QQ and AK like the chart says. Maybe even fold AK or QQ sometimes if the feeling is right.

      I don't believe calling a reraise all-in with TT is a great idea at the bubble. You only increase your equity by 13% calling an AI compared to the 25% equity you lose if you get knocked out. That means your hand has to have a 2 to 1 chance of winning to be profitable. This is something I read at SitNGoPlanet. Of course, my opponent already had money invested in the pot so that comes into play also. But it was such a small amount that he was calling almost 4x as much to call me. I will run this in Equilab and have a look later as this is something I need to know better to be successful.

      Had he called and lost he would finish with $0. It's not worth busting out on the Bubble to make that call with TT. That's my opinion.
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Originally posted by gsergiul
      "Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|40/80 NL - Holdem - 4 players"
      There you have your answer.
      Do you think these guys calculate the pot odds of every pot?
      And even if he had good pot odds for a coinflip that would be BEST CASE SCENARIO.
      He's flipping AT BEST vs your range. So yes he's a moron get over it :)

      Hero is only 15BB deep. villain has more then 30. Imo calling TT there really isn't that bad at all. Or do you wait for AK when your down to 4BB ? Your ahead against A ton of hands.. all pocket pairs below TT. and Ax hands with a 10 kicker or lower. Your also slightly ahead vs overcards and are only in a really bad spot vs 4 hands (JJ,QQ,KK,AA).

      haven't played sng's in a long time. But i don't see how you could call him a moron when hes ahead vs a ton of hands that might be in his range and also bluffs.
      Ah, yes because he called with a larger stack I suppose it makes sense. He wasn't risking the tournament. Still gives lots to think about...
    • Sandwind
      Sandwind
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.12.2010 Posts: 67
      Originally posted by Navrark
      Originally posted by Sandwind
      many fish around here
      u have played for a year and u have no idea what handrange means
      also the guy with flipping that is a standard call with TT and shoving AQ there is also standard
      good play by both players
      have fun guys
      Well, like I said I have played "off and on" and only in the micro stakes. I understand what handranges mean to an extent. I am about to install that Equilab program and begin to learn them in depth. What I have done thus far is to judge by how often my opponent raises as to what the quality of his hand is. If he raises crazy often then I will drop my hand requirements down from the Starting Hands Chart. If he raises very rarely I will only reraise with AA-KK-QQ and AK like the chart says. Maybe even fold AK or QQ sometimes if the feeling is right.

      I don't believe calling a reraise all-in with TT is a great idea at the bubble. You only increase your equity by 13% calling an AI compared to the 25% equity you lose if you get knocked out. That means your hand has to have a 2 to 1 chance of winning to be profitable. This is something I read at SitNGoPlanet. Of course, my opponent already had money invested in the pot so that comes into play also. But it was such a small amount that he was calling almost 4x as much to call me. I will run this in Equilab and have a look later as this is something I need to know better to be successful.

      Had he called and lost he would finish with $0. It's not worth busting out on the Bubble to make that call with TT. That's my opinion.
      k first of all he has more chips than u and this is a great spot for him to bust a player having a very good hand
      also your range there is something like 77-AA,A8-AK,KQ,maybe even KJ and u should understand that only 4 hands dominate his hand(JJ-AA) and he is a favorite against any other holding;also there are only 24 combinations of JJ-AA and a lot more combinations of A8-AK, 77-99,kq,kj so most of the time he is a favorite nad he needs around 40% equity to call which i am sure he has
      i don't play sngs because i hate them but his play seems standard to me especially at a 2$ limit
      i would never ever fold there without reads
      also your shove is good i would not play the hand any other way
      best of luck
    • gsergiul
      gsergiul
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.11.2010 Posts: 234
      Sorry guys maybe I'm just a bit nitty when it comes to AI preflop but I'm not pushing AJ(15bb) with a UTG raise , you have enough wiggle room to find a better spot, steal a few blinds and perhaps get it in better. My pushing range there is AQ+ TT+ (please understand that this is just the case vs an utg raise).