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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50, COvBU, KJs call 3bet OOP, ck/r AI fluff

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J, K.
      Hero raises to $1.25, BU raises to $4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.25.

      Flop: ($9.75) 9, 3, T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $8.25, Hero raises to $52.80(All-In) ...

      Villain's stats:

      Not too many stats, bet here is a little meta game:
      - Two hands ago Villain (BB) 3betted me (SB), I folded.
      - Hand after that (SB vs. BU) he 3better me again, I 4bettted, he 5bet shoved and I folded. This however could be a mistake from me as it could be more realistic from him to have a hand here. Although it could also be leveling wars. Maybe he sometimes thinks like that too and simply bluffs twice in row.
      - Now. He 3bet me again 3rd time in a row. So, I thought pre-flop:"I'm going to call his 3bet OOP and ck/r AI some of the flops." So I did.

      Well we can assume 2 possibilities here:
      1. He never bluffs the 3rd time in which case his range is TT+, AQs+, AQo+.
      2. He is a maniac and his range includes the above one and also a lot of bluffs.

      In case 1 :

      He calls any pair: TT-AA.
      He calls AdKx and AdQx, not sure about Kd and Qd.
      He calls AdKd and AdQd.

      So he folds out 14 combos out of 62 combos.
      So FE or what he folds out in % is 14/62=0.23=23%

      My EV (ck/r fluff) = Pot * (FE) + (1-FE) * [EQ*(What we win) – (1-EQ)*(What we lose)] =
      = $18 * (0.23) + (0.77) * [0.21*($ 71) – (0.79)*($ 53)] =
      = $ 1.84 + (0.77) * [- $ 26.96 ]=
      = $ 1.84 - $ 20.8 =
      = - $ 19

      If his range is that tight here, then I'm in a very bad shape.
      I need a lot more hands for him to fold out, because 23% is not enough.
      As we are almost full stacked, we probably need about 60% fold equity to be close to break-even or better (If his equity would be the same).

      Also his cbet size is huge on this flop. Maybe he is protecting his over-pair or something.

      Q: What's your thought process?
      If you see some mistakes in my calculations tell me please.

      Q: Also, how would you adjust to this opponent given the action that has happened?
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      power of 3-betting :)
      I would personally not c/rai on that flop, since cosnider his bet size i really doubt he is b/f there and very often b/c with overcards+flushdraw or overpairs
      So you can´t expect to have that much fold equity, which means best play is just to c/f flop
      I generally think he is not 3-betting you pf with air, so being oop you can also consider folding, although if you´re fine stacking off every time you hit your tp hand then b/c pf is also fine
      Pf I would start min-raising my buttons and tighten up a lot co, if he is on the BU. Also I´d widen my 4-bet/calling range maybe as wide as AJs+, AQ+, 88+ and just fold like 10 minutes everything that isn´t like top 15%
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Anger86,

      Firstly I'd like to mention that there are just so many hands which will continue on such a board and I don't really like it to Check/Shove there. I guess even donking has the same fold equity.

      And about the calculations I went just that far that I took a look at the combos and seems that you seem to miss some combos which he is folding.

      Best regards.