# [NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50, COvBU, KJs call 3bet OOP, ck/r AI fluff

• Bronze
Joined: 17.08.2008
\$0.25/\$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)

Known players:
BB:
\$96.90
CO (Hero):
\$57.30
BU:
\$66.25
SB:
\$76.90

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, K.
Hero raises to \$1.25, BU raises to \$4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls \$3.25.

Flop: (\$9.75) 9, 3, T (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets \$8.25, Hero raises to \$52.80(All-In) ...

Villain's stats:

Not too many stats, bet here is a little meta game:
- Two hands ago Villain (BB) 3betted me (SB), I folded.
- Hand after that (SB vs. BU) he 3better me again, I 4bettted, he 5bet shoved and I folded. This however could be a mistake from me as it could be more realistic from him to have a hand here. Although it could also be leveling wars. Maybe he sometimes thinks like that too and simply bluffs twice in row.
- Now. He 3bet me again 3rd time in a row. So, I thought pre-flop:"I'm going to call his 3bet OOP and ck/r AI some of the flops." So I did.

Well we can assume 2 possibilities here:
1. He never bluffs the 3rd time in which case his range is TT+, AQs+, AQo+.
2. He is a maniac and his range includes the above one and also a lot of bluffs.

In case 1 :

He calls any pair: TT-AA.

So he folds out 14 combos out of 62 combos.
So FE or what he folds out in % is 14/62=0.23=23%

My EV (ck/r fluff) = Pot * (FE) + (1-FE) * [EQ*(What we win) – (1-EQ)*(What we lose)] =
= \$18 * (0.23) + (0.77) * [0.21*(\$ 71) – (0.79)*(\$ 53)] =
= \$ 1.84 + (0.77) * [- \$ 26.96 ]=
= \$ 1.84 - \$ 20.8 =
= - \$ 19

If his range is that tight here, then I'm in a very bad shape.
I need a lot more hands for him to fold out, because 23% is not enough.
As we are almost full stacked, we probably need about 60% fold equity to be close to break-even or better (If his equity would be the same).

Also his cbet size is huge on this flop. Maybe he is protecting his over-pair or something.

If you see some mistakes in my calculations tell me please.

Q: Also, how would you adjust to this opponent given the action that has happened?
• 2 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 02.02.2007
power of 3-betting
I would personally not c/rai on that flop, since cosnider his bet size i really doubt he is b/f there and very often b/c with overcards+flushdraw or overpairs
So you can´t expect to have that much fold equity, which means best play is just to c/f flop
I generally think he is not 3-betting you pf with air, so being oop you can also consider folding, although if you´re fine stacking off every time you hit your tp hand then b/c pf is also fine
Pf I would start min-raising my buttons and tighten up a lot co, if he is on the BU. Also I´d widen my 4-bet/calling range maybe as wide as AJs+, AQ+, 88+ and just fold like 10 minutes everything that isn´t like top 15%
• Black
Joined: 20.07.2008
Hello Anger86,

Firstly I'd like to mention that there are just so many hands which will continue on such a board and I don't really like it to Check/Shove there. I guess even donking has the same fold equity.

And about the calculations I went just that far that I took a look at the combos and seems that you seem to miss some combos which he is folding.

Best regards.