[NL20-NL50] [SH/NL25] AQo turnplay?

    • ragney
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($25.10)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($16.54)
      UTG+1 ($25)
      CO ($25)
      BTN ($46.90)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: Q:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.35, fold, UTG+1 calls $1.60

      FLOP ($4.95) Q:spade: 8:spade: 3:heart:

      Hero bets $3.55, UTG+1 calls $3.55

      TURN ($12.05) Q:spade: 8:spade: 3:heart: 4:spade:

      Hero ???

      Villian over 2300 hands:
      TAG 17/15/2.9
      Fold to 3bet 72%, so I'm assuming a strong hand as he didnt fold to my 3bet
      Fold cbet flop 3bet 25% / fold cbet turn 25%
      Agg% flop turn river 25/32/27
  • 3 replies
    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,271
      turn doesn't change much IMO,if we assume he never has KK/AA/QQ (because he would probably 4bet pre almost all day long,Also we got AQ so we block qq and so he never has QQ+ here)After this his range consists of : KQ/AQ/JJ/TT/99 and sometimes AJs/ATs.If he had the flushdraw it would be the nut flushdraw so he is very likely to raise the flop with it and play for stacks.Since he just called u down i see only 1 hand that beats you and it is sometimes KsJs which he shouldn't ever had(probably might add 88 don't know how Bad he is or table dynamics) so protecting against Ks/As/Js/Ts/9s is a must - value bet/call turn - easy game.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Vs a guy that folds a fair amount to 3-bets you are turning AQo into a bluff preflop.

      His 4-bet and calling range will have you in pretty poor shape and on top of that you'll be OOP. I would only 3-bet this preflop if I knew a bit more about the opponents tendencies postflop and if I can expect to do it for value (ie: a lot of worse hands will call me like KQ, AJ, etc).

      Your 3-bet size OOP might be a bit small as well.

      Given that his range here is usually on the weaker side (99-JJ), some AQ we should consider betting small, around half pot. I don't like checking as I don't want to give his 99 with a spade a chance for a free river card.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      b/c is reasonable, since he would sometimes hove over your turn bet TT/99 with flushdraw or if he decided to float AsJx, AsKx
      If I would check then likely would go to c/rai, since I think he can b/c worse hands and hands that are behind would usually just take their free showdown on the river like JJ/TT/99