[NL20-NL50] [NL50 FR Rush] 54s, 3b pot, 200BB deep.

    • whipflip15
      whipflip15
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.11.2006 Posts: 284
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $70.30
      UTG1:
      $48.20
      UTG2:
      $171.35
      MP1:
      $20.75
      MP2:
      $114.55
      MP3:
      $103.50
      CO (Hero):
      $94.50
      BU:
      $20.00
      SB:
      $19.25


      Preflop: Hero is CO with 5, 4.
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 raises to $1.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $6.50, 3 folds, UTG2 calls $5.00, MP2 folds.

      Flop: ($15.25) A, 7, J (2 players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG2 calls $7.50.

      Turn: ($30.25) 3 (2 players)
      UTG2 bets $14.00, Hero calls $14.00.

      River: ($58.25) 9 (2 players)
      UTG2 bets $30.75, Hero folds, UTG2 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $58.25.

      As played, how do you proceed on turn? Villain is 45/27 after 30 hands. I'd say his range here is 77/JJ/AA and some AJ and on the rare occasion AK. We are deep and he seems loose so I assume he is calling 77 PF so we have 18% against all sets, 6 out of 16 AJ combos and 2 out of 16 AK. I put in all sets but he would have 4b AA most the time so this is only rough estimate. We need 24% to call and I think I will def win his stack most the time when I hit as his range is so strong.
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      problem is if UTG2 has there smt like KdQd. I think he won´t b/c river with K high, so you can´t always expect to win his whole stack, but very likely he would bet river if he bets turn, so you get odds to hit your double gutshot
    • whipflip15
      whipflip15
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.11.2006 Posts: 284
      I doubt he will check/call flop, donk turn with in a bloated 3b pot. I just never see it happen.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by whipflip15
      I doubt he will check/call flop, donk turn with in a bloated 3b pot. I just never see it happen.
      you´re deep, you did bet half pot and if he hits his gutshot he can easily stack your set or two pair. Imo he may easily c/c once with KdQd