[NL20-NL50] [SH/NL25] QQ vs river shove

    • ragney
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($38.75)
      BB ($18.87)
      Hero ($44.25)
      UTG+1 ($12.50)
      CO ($37.88)
      BTN ($15.12)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.90, fold, fold

      FLOP ($2.15) 6:club: 6:spade: A:spade:

      Hero bets $1.55, BTN calls $1.55

      TURN ($5.25) 6:club: 6:spade: A:spade: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

      RIVER ($12.25) 6:club: 6:spade: A:spade: 7:diamond: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $9.17 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $11.65

      Villian over 1600 hands
      Fold cbet flop 44% / fold cbet turn 31%
      Agg% flop turn river 18/23/31

      I think we can call the river? We can expect us being ahead 50% of the time?
  • 2 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Actually you need ~ 30% eq to call here profitably and I think it's a clear fold as I dont see you ahead like ever at this point.

      The point in barreling F+T is to get value from draws and worse made hands and on the river every draw hits and villain can have any flush, straight even a fh or 6x and Ax. Dont expect such a passive guy to ever push TT/JJ at this point.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, you´re mostly beat on the river so c/f is fine, but I´m not sure if I like your turn bet.
      I would personally try to keep pot small and go to showdown and let him bluff with his missed draws on blank turn and river cards