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Is this short-term luck or i am becoming good?

    • Vepof
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 72
      To the facts:

      I deposited 56$ in PS three months ago.
      Did read a lot of books, articles and etc... and afterall, i was still a donkey modafuck.
      Lost 6$ in the first day.

      And then, for two months, i couldn't win.
      I was in a zig zag graph up and down (more down than up) doubling stack in a day. Losing two BI's in the next day (it just slowed down my losses i guess)
      And, still playing very few hands/day, bout 30 and max 50.

      went to 39$.

      And then, i realized that something was wrong. I decided to post some of my hands on a forum for analisys and found a lot of leaks.
      Next time i opened a table, i had a new completely different mindset.
      Started to play something between 350-400 hands/day, two tables. (Only did single table b4 my renovation).

      I started this about 7 or 8 days ago, and i went from 39$ to 47$ (wich is my current BR at the moment). BUT now:

      - I know what value-bet is, (this is was a bad leak i had, thats why i didn't win as much as i lost), i play my winning hands now way more agressively, always trying to get as much value i can for it.
      I also realized what is a protection-bet (taking villain's odds out) and i can recognize some bluffing spots (well, this is still something to work on)

      - I can identify a donk and aim to take his money. I also recognized that I WAS A HUGE DONKEY WEEKS AGO.

      - I am playing a lot less pots, i'm always between 18%-25% (getting in the flop this %/hands played). I found the fold button. I am choosing better my hands and my positions to decide either to get or not involved in a pot.
      And almost every time i get in a hand, i do it raising.

      - I learned the concept of "Pot size control", and used several times, reducing my losses when i probably had the second best hand.

      - I am more carefully when selecting the tables i play. Aiming for bigger pot sizes and higher % of players who sees the flop.

      And I AM FINALLY GOING UP. This never happened before.

      I don't think it is luck. I know what is going on a hand. I can put my oponents in ranges, i can identify when my hand is winner and get value for it, i can fold AA in a Kd Tc Kx board if everything suggests the guy has a K.
      Well, and i also realized i'm playing NL2 and not highstakes 300/600 at Golden nugget so... I want the opinion of more experienced players.

      Is it possible that i am wrong about all this shit?
      that this was just a massive combination of bad oponents + lucky cards + lucky flops + lucky reads?

      7 days * 300 hands = 2.100 hands. Aprox.

      So, is it possible that all my thougs were lucky thougs? Is this short term luck or my posture suggests a winning NL2 player?
      May sound insane but it looks like i discovered the TRUTH about NL2. From night to day, just like that.

      Tell me the truth.
  • 5 replies
    • darkod80
      Joined: 13.11.2008 Posts: 161
      Seems like you know what you are talking about. Go for it and see what happens in next several days. I have a feeling you are going to beat those limits in no time,just keep studying :s_cool:
    • fuzzyfish
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Luck can have a major influence on your profit/loss even over 20,000 hands or more, however as I understand you work hard on your game so it's very likely that you beat those limits.
    • RainmanTrail
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 24
      It is quite possible that you are experiencing both short term luck as well as an increase in ability. Your hard work should pay off in the long run, but you shouldn't expect to be killing it every 2100 hands. 2100 hands is quite literally nothing with respect to long term expectations. Keep up the good work though.

    • conall88
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      hey vepof, I can guarantee you will be able to at least crush 10NL if you were to post 15 trouble hands a week, attempt to learn from them all, and also play 3k+ hands a week.

      by the way. remember that you move stakes not based on how confident you are etc, but based on your bankroll.

      good luck at the tables.
    • clawindsouza
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      just by reading the post its obv that you've been improving...

      focus on improving everyday thats all...the results will follow as you can see...