Semi bluff

    • LemOn36
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,898
      From platinum article:

      EV(semi-bluff) = Fold Equity * Dead Money + (1- Fold Equity) * [Equity *(Dead Money + Bet Size) - (1- Equity) * Bet Size]

      Does this work for semi bluffs where we are e.g. shoving over somebody's cbet or when we are 5bet shoving over 4Bet pf?
  • 1 reply
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      No, that equation has to be modified for raises.

      Your opponent doesn't have to match the cost of your raise since part of that represents a call of his bet or raise. The reward when you get called and draw out is not the dead money + the size of your bet, it is the dead money + the amount your opponent has to call.

      For example, suppose it is blind vs. blind with $100 stacks, you 3-bet to $9, and your opponent 4-bet to $25. You are considering pushing, which risks $91 compared with folding. Your opponent would only have to call another $75. So, if you get called and lose, the cost of the semibluff was $91. If you get called and win, you gain the $34 pot plus your opponent's $75 call, a total of $109.

      The equity of pushing relative to folding in this example is P(fold) x $34 + P(call)(wins x $109 - losses x $91).