another POTENTIAL poker-is-rigged thread

    • belayd
      belayd
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      Over my first 1K hands on William Hill my win rate was about 100 BB/100.

      Over my first 1.8K hands , including the above, my win rate has dropped to about 7 BB/100.

      I've noticed a similar pattern on all poker sites I've played on: the fish gets sucked into believing he's a winner, and then he goes on a huge downswing, except that the initial upswing encourages him to redeposit and feed the sharks.

      Except that I'm playing with my free starting capital and have never deposited.

      Someone please tell me why this recurrent pattern, which I've observed many times not only for myself but for nearly every new poker site signup, does NOT mean poker is rigged. I would very much like to believe that it isn't rigged because I want to keep playing.
  • 30 replies
    • Kodark
      Kodark
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      Joined: 24.02.2011 Posts: 249
      So then why not deposit 1000 join a new poker site and shove every hand for first day.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Because tomorrow is Saturday and Sunday comes afterwards
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Thanks for the sarcasm. I was asking a serious question.

      Does anyone have anything serious to contribute?
    • Kodark
      Kodark
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      Joined: 24.02.2011 Posts: 249
      We are all going to die alone
    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
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      poker is not rigged. it's a luck game. you win and then lose because the variance is huge.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Originally posted by belayd
      Thanks for the sarcasm. I was asking a serious question.

      Does anyone have anything serious to contribute?
      variance, if not then do what kodark adviced.

      /serious
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Originally posted by Kodark
      We are all going to die alone
      Nonsense. That proposition is philosophically untenable.
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Originally posted by vmarqui
      poker is not rigged. it's a luck game. you win and then lose because the variance is huge.
      What is the expected variance at 2NL cash? If you don't want to "hand it to me on a platter" please let me know where to find the formula.
    • eso4
      eso4
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      Joined: 05.07.2009 Posts: 17
      I play on Party Poker.. My bonus out. This is what they say about me on poker edge: Shark - He is a very solid player with a tight and aggressive playing style. He should be avoided at the tables as he is a tough opponent.

      Well I did lots of adjustments to my play and I basically look for spots where I am far ahead. Coz when I started my LAG style I was +21 after sample of 1500 hands. Then current of cards and action changed drastically. I had to change my playing style to somewhat more solid. Over next 8000 hands I was flattened out but still managed to get my profit to about +42. Now here comes the downswing after 15k hands. I am -2.

      I am being 'carddead' over sample of 14k hands. Last 3k hands tho.. I am losing about 90% of hands (this is subjective) where I am clearly ahead. QQ vs KQ, 88 vs AT on flop TT8, AK vs KQ.. Wherever I am ahead and push I end up losing about 90% of time. Basically for every point I earn on NL2, I lose 1 dollar. I admit my super abc game is nothing great to be played. But those flips I end up losing are humiliating.

      I've lost completely my feel for the site and once I play my bonus out I'll never show up again. What are your feelings about this? Can you get to such long losing streaks? Like being card dead completely for 6k hand sample being close to play out the bonus?

      Always make ur judgement for yourself. There will be always sites you will feel comfortable with and those that you don't. Always work on ur game. Take ur beatings as a man :)
    • gadget51
      gadget51
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      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Well ok, I'm far from the expert here, but I think you basically answered your own post...

      Quote:
      'I've noticed a similar pattern on all poker sites I've played on: the fish gets sucked into believing he's a winner, and then he goes on a huge downswing, except that the initial upswing encourages him to redeposit and feed the sharks.'

      It's obvious you're a beginner because 1k or 1.8k hands is a very very small sample size to be asking if sites are rigged (see numerous other forums and an unbelievable amount of similar posts/questions/raves etc.).

      Look at the problem from another angle. If an experienced player has their winrate drop and drop and drop, they look to their game, they post hands, they ask questions. So, rather than go down the 'Poker is rigged' route, try going down the; 'I've had a look at my sessions but can't find the poblem, can someone help please?' Then post hands that troubled you on the relevant forums; you will get much more coherent help.

      But don't expect NightFrostaSS to change; lol

      GL.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by belayd
      Originally posted by vmarqui
      poker is not rigged. it's a luck game. you win and then lose because the variance is huge.
      What is the expected variance at 2NL cash? If you don't want to "hand it to me on a platter" please let me know where to find the formula.
      Tough to say, depends on your play style, as well as if it's 6max or full ring, winrate etc. I'd guess that your standard deviation bb/100 will be between ~65 to 80bb/100. As for winrate, well it's all up to you, probably something like 10bb/100 is okay, don't expect to get bigger if u r beginner. (and you are one otherwise you wouldn't be playing nl2 or creating such threads)

      Now go to this link http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/and plug in the numbers and play around with variance simulations. The results will surprise you and not in a good way.

      And plz don't use word "rigged" in thread names, it attracts some very "special" members of our community.
    • ZeMammuth
      ZeMammuth
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 704
      As much as I hate to admit it, this is 100 percent true. Most new players that sign up to Pokersites start with an upswing, probs 70 percent of people.

      = IT MUST BE RIGGED NO OTHER WAY AROUND IT
    • eso4
      eso4
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      Joined: 05.07.2009 Posts: 17
      what do you then if you know you put your hand in the best and you get beat? What would you improve?

      I have to add then when I do this in live game.. I end up beating those who get in weak fair % amount of time.. I just don't see this happening on Party in huge sample of hands :)
    • Jackalof
      Jackalof
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      Did someone say 'rigged'????

      Added to favourites.
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      Here is my graph if it helps:

    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Originally posted by eso4
      what do you then if you know you put your hand in the best and you get beat? What would you improve?
      I'd try to stop masturbating to my best friends gf, helps the karma
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Tough to say, depends on your play style, as well as if it's 6max or full ring, winrate etc. I'd guess that your standard deviation bb/100 will be between ~65 to 80bb/100. As for winrate, well it's all up to you, probably something like 10bb/100 is okay, don't expect to get bigger if u r beginner. (and you are one otherwise you wouldn't be playing nl2 or creating such threads)

      Now go to this link http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/and plug in the numbers and play around with variance simulations. The results will surprise you and not in a good way.

      And plz don't use word "rigged" in thread names, it attracts some very "special" members of our community.
      Thanks for the information. I play 2NL full ring, regular tables only (i.e. no turbos) and I stay away from beginner tables and sit out if the number of active players drops below 7.

      I'll check out the variance simulator. Thanks again.
    • eso4
      eso4
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      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Originally posted by eso4
      what do you then if you know you put your hand in the best and you get beat? What would you improve?
      I'd try to stop masturbating to my best friends gf, helps the karma
      now that's amazing piece of advice..

      it just doesn't apply well to me..
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Originally posted by eso4
      what do you then if you know you put your hand in the best and you get beat? What would you improve?
      I'd try to stop masturbating to my best friends gf, helps the karma
      This thread has been defeated.
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