[NL2-NL10] Continuation Bet Half Stack

    • Gnostradamus
      Gnostradamus
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 54
      When playing MSS, I miss the Flop with the Initiative and I make a continuation bet, if that bet is half my stack or more should I go All In?

      Thanks

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      SB = ($25.32)
      BB = ($33.95)
      UTG1 = ($25.00)
      UTG2 = ($22.88)
      MP1 = ($25.42)
      MP2 = ($19.35)
      MP3 = ($27.20)
      CO = ($24.65)
      BU (Hero) = ($9.55)

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9, 9.
      4 folds, MP3 raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.00, 3 folds, CO calls $2.25.

      Flop: ($7.1) K, Q, 6 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $3.40, CO raises to $9.75, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $10.5.
  • 5 replies
    • Jehryn
      Jehryn
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 678
      I would say it depends on your pot odds & EV.

      the total pot is 7.1+3.4+9.75+3.15= 23.40

      You have left: 9.55-3-3.4= 3.15

      So you pot odds are 3.15: 23.4 = : 7.43

      Assuming the villain has either a Q or a K you only have 2 outs to win, namely when you make a set.

      So the % of you hitting a 9 on the turn is 2:47= 1/23.5 & 2:46 on the river 1:23 which you makes your overal odds around 1: 11.5 (assuming the board is rainbow)

      Since 1: 7.43 <<<< 1:11.5 a fold is the correct answer.


      Damn it's been a long time since i've used math :s_biggrin:
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You have 3.15 and you can win 21 hence getting 7:1ish

      But if you PokerStove your 99 versus any K for example you get around 11%

      Since you need roughly 14% to be good, you have to bet/fold here

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Gnostradamus
      Gnostradamus
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 54
      Hello,

      Yes, however my question was, since my continuation bet was more than half my stack, rather than betting 3.40 on the flop as a continuation bet, should I have bet 6.55 on the flop and gone all in?

      According to the MSS strategy, the flop was dry enough for a continuation bet because, while there were two connectors, the flop was a rainbow.

      My opponent did check the flop.

      I thinking that I should have either not bet the flop or else I should have gone all-in according to the strategy.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      mostly I will shove this Flop yes sorry I missed the question ;)

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Gnostradamus
      Gnostradamus
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 54
      Thanks Gerv,

      I really hadn't made myself clear. Thanks for the reply!