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[NL20-NL50] SH NL50 QQ river bet boat

    • Gabinr1
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
      SB ($50.75)
      BB ($52.35)
      UTG ($17.65)
      UTG+1 ($61.05)
      Hero ($65.45)
      BTN ($62)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: Q:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $3.50

      FLOP ($10.75) 5:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG+1 calls $5.50

      TURN ($21.75) 5:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade: 6:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $11, UTG+1 calls $11

      RIVER ($43.75) 5:heart: 7:diamond: 5:spade: 6:heart: 5:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $43.95 (AI), UTG+1 folds

      Hero shows Q:spade: Q:heart:

      Hero wins $41.60

      Villain said that he had 99, he seemed pretty sincere.

      My question is, do we lose value by shoving the river in this spots, instead of betting @1/2 pot?

      I had many rivers like this, one argument for betting for max value is that we have to be paid just 1/2 of the times to get the same added profit as when we bet 1/2 pot.
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      If you don't expect villain to be a thinking opponent (on a deeper level that is) betting small on the river is fine to get looked up by his PPs and occasional AKhh.

      If you do not have any history (of aggression) or an aggressive image it's going to be hard to get called there by worse very often.

      So there are a couple of things I'd consider doing differently.

      Bet bigger on flop and turn. This is a dry board but also one where you will get called a LOT by villains preflop calling range. Thus you can get more value on earlier streets and set stacks better for the river.

      I'd bet 2/3 pot on flop and turn (consider that you are also 122 BB deep here).
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think flop c-bet is fine, you can bet a little bigger on the turn, but generally since his range has so many times just pp-s that might fold to big turn bet I think half bet is also fine. If you think he would call more 20$ bet than river shove then you can bet half pot, but I think this looks so much as valuebet rather than missed draw, so I´d still prefer shoving. If your image is terrible you get looked up at that spot TT/JJ