[NL2-NL10] 44nl 10 EV play?

    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($9.75)
      BB ($3.35)
      UTG ($9.90)
      CO ($11.68)
      BTN ($52.07)

      Dealt to Hero 4:spade: 4:diamond:

      fold, CO raises to $0.35, fold, Hero raises to $1.15, fold, CO raises to $3.55, fold

      CO wins $2.40

      he 4bet me secondtime in 3orbits he FT3b 80% so i think he 4bet me AJ+, 99+ and he never fold to shove, so i consider 5bet shove with my 44 so but this is eV+ play?

      i have qestion What is formula EV here?

      Easier at the table: EV = Equity * Final Pot - Money we put in this

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 35.927% 35.68% 00.25% 43982406 310443.00 { 4c4d }
      Hand 1: 64.073% 63.82% 00.25% 78682596 310443.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }

      so 35%* 21,53 - 8,6 = -1,064

      so how much Equity we need here?

      Something like: Minimal Equity = Money we put in / (Final Pot -Rake)

      so 8,6/ 21,53 = 40%

      so here if we don't expect we have some foldequity and he 4bet only for value we have easy fold with 44 ??


      and if we expect we have Fold equity about 30% formula is

      30%*4,8 + 70%(21,53 *0,35 - 8,6) = 1,44 - 0,75 = 0,69 so we should 5bet shove here.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello deivid2,

      Yes, if you take into account that he ain't gonna fold at all then the EV calculation is: EV = Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment. Therefore I get it like -$1,544.

      Equity needed is something like ~44% actually, since I am getting it like 8,6/19,6.

      And yes, it's a very easy fold here with 44 while we expect not having him any fold equity at all.

      And if we expect to have 30% equity. For that the formula will be: EV = Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment).

      I am getting there it like 0,36, therefore if you expect to have 30% fold equity here, then it should be somehow profitable shove, although I didn't take into account the rake. So therefore more likely it's like break-even.

      Best regards.