[NL2-NL10] NL25 JJ facing donkbet on Q-high flop

    • snowylee
      snowylee
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

      saw flop|saw showdown

      MP3 ($26.95)
      Hero ($5.15)
      Button ($20.45)
      SB ($23.40)
      BB ($36.45)
      UTG ($25.50)
      UTG+1 ($24.90)
      MP1 ($25)
      MP2 ($13.80)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J.
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.25, MP2 folds.

      Flop: ($3.60) 8, Q, T (3 players)
      UTG+1 bets $3.6, Hero ?.


      Is it a clear fold here against unknown? I believe I dont get good enough odds here right?
  • 4 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Well... It is definately not a clear fold. I think we can call here. Our odds are 2:1 -> we need 33% of equity.

      He limped from UTG. On this limit he could do it with a monster as well with any trash hand) I think this range is quite realistic:

      QQ+, 66-TT, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+, KJo+

      He could easily limp/call AK/AJ.

      Anyway, against estimated range you have 51% of equity.
    • snowylee
      snowylee
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      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      Yeah ok, thx :) . And I put him on a way tighter range which was a bit unrealistic I guess.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      well, you definately have all the rights to put him on a tighter range. It just seems to me that he is now overplaying his ovecards or a straight draw, because why on earth one will make a pot size bet into a pre-flop raiser if he hit a flop? (or holding an overpair)

      But if we examine this hand in terms of EV, even with a tighter range call will likely be profitable. I strongly believe we will have 33% of equity in this spot longterm.
    • snowylee
      snowylee
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      Yeah ok :)