[NL2-NL10] NL10 MSS: AK, pair+gutshot no good?

    • random3
      random3
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.02.2007 Posts: 119
      This happened on rush table, and villain was new, so no stats or reads.(12/0 over 8 hands)

      Coming to the river, I realized this is not a spot I want to put myself into.
      Could I fold or shove this at some points before river?

      Our equity on flop & turn (assuming villain has at least 2 pair or better):

      Flop:
      Hero 27.49% 24.92% 2.57% AcKh
      Villain 72.51% 69.94% 2.57% JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo

      Turn:
      Hero 32.10% 31.25% 0.85% AcKh
      Villain 67.90% 67.05% 0.85% JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo

      What do you guys think, any advice appreciated.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Full Tilt
      SB ($10.50)
      BB ($13.60)
      UTG ($12.28)
      UTG+1 ($6.49)
      UTG+2 ($3.01)
      Hero ($8.53)
      MP2 ($10)
      CO ($6.39)
      BTN ($7.78)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: A:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) J:heart: Q:spade: A:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.45

      TURN ($2.50) J:heart: Q:spade: A:heart: 5:heart:

      SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

      RIVER ($7.50) J:heart: Q:spade: A:heart: 5:heart: 3:diamond:

      SB bets $6.80 (AI), Hero ??
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Does villain ever check/raise worse? Does his range strengthen on the TUrn if he does c/r worse?
    • random3
      random3
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.02.2007 Posts: 119
      If he has a worse hand, I believe it's either gutshot(+pair), flushdraw or bluff.
      On the turn his fd hit so that puts his flushdraws in the group of hands that beat us, and we are only left beating gutshots/complete bluffs.

      I think this makes it a clear fold on the turn after he fires a full psb.

      On the flop I still think it could be an ok call, given our equity in the pot.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I think I just bet/fold the Flop because if we fold the Turn on a blank as well , then we are better off folding the Flop immdiately though it is a minraise. I dont think he will c/minriase ATo for example