Bad Weekend

    • BigAl123456
      BigAl123456
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 4,080
      Hey All,

      I have had a terrible weekend as far as SNGs have gone totally destroyed my ROI, it all started when I decided I was going to start grinding at 10:30 Friday Night after playing a live tournament all day. I was making really poor decisions and my head wasn’t in the game I quit after my first set.

      Saturday Morning woke up and decided to start the Saturday grind got through my first 2 sets, but I was still playing badly, so I took a break for a few hrs. I came back and played better, but I fell like I have forgotten how to play wining SNG poker.

      Yesterday same story playing bad and running bad, keep running pairs into highs pairs and getting my self in bad spots like when I have 9s get Min 3bet and my altitude is never to fold to Min 3Bet so ill call and flop comes all low and we get it in and they have Js etc.

      2day I played my 4 sets cashed 3x in 16 games for no first places, I have crushed my ROI and ITM% my ROI was 15% last week now its 8.9%, and my graph looks terrible.

      At the start of the month I ran really hot that’s how I built my BR from $26 to $100, and I told myself that I cant expect to run this good all the time and I’m going to have to be prepared for when I have bad days. Truth is I am not prepared, I'm feeling pretty tilted right now looking at my graph angling down instead of shooting it up as it has been doing this whole month.

      Any advice I know everyone runs bad that’s part of SNGs, but I fell I am playing poorly as well not making the right decisions epically when I have a Midstack of 9-18 BBs, Sorry for the TLDR.
  • 5 replies
    • stevegold87
      stevegold87
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2009 Posts: 2,640
      Hey!

      You seem like a smart guy so what I will tell you won't surprise you : How many game did you play this weekend?

      IF you are talking about 100-200 then I guess it is really a bad weekend but variance and swings are very common in SNGs. I wouldn't worry too mcuh about your ROI because if you read other threads you will see phzon state often that the standard derivation for ROI in less than a 1000 game is huge.

      Quoting Phzon from a thread :
      "After n tournaments, a rough 95% confidence interval for your true win rate is your observed ROI +- 310%/squareroot(n). This assumes your standard deviation per tournament is 1.55 buy-ins. So, after 1000 tournaments, the width of that confidence interval is +- 10%. After 4000 tournaments, +-5%. It's not a huge shock to be up to 10% off over 1000 tournaments, or up to 5% off after 4000 tournaments. "

      Also what makes me wonder is that you know some of your major leak in your game yet you can't handle but do it...you will never improve if you dont fix those leak!

      Calling a 3 bet with 99 (a min 3 bet should be considered the same as a 3 bet since in the micros they have no clue about bet sizing) is a very bad thing to do against almost anyone. In almost everycase you should fold 99 to a 3 bet.

      My last piece of advice is when you are running bad : Make sure you are posting hands, make sure you watch more videos, make sure you train ICM etc. Improving can only help you feel better.

      GL =)
    • BigAl123456
      BigAl123456
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 4,080
      Yer when you put it like that my volume over a weekend is nothing that generates a decent sample.

      Ok I will endevor not to Call Min 3Bets, even tho they are so tempting. I will continue to try and improve.
    • goldchess
      goldchess
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 641
      depends what blind level/stack sizes

      often you will have the implied odds to set mine vs the min 3-bet
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      In a way it is better to run bad from the beginning than to run good. The reason is because you will be more serious about fixing your game so that when the upswing comes you will swing higher.

      If you run good from the start despite making mistakes you will be overconfident in your skills, and then you'll get clobbered hard during the downswing while trying to fix your play.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by BigAl123456
      At the start of the month I ran really hot that’s how I built my BR from $26 to $100, and I told myself that I cant expect to run this good all the time and I’m going to have to be prepared for when I have bad days. Truth is I am not prepared, I'm feeling pretty tilted right now looking at my graph angling down instead of shooting it up as it has been doing this whole month.
      The worst thing that can happen to people when they first gamble is to win.

      Your expectations get set too high. Further, you don't look to correct the many mistakes which are undoubtedly part of your strategy. You want to do the same things and get the same results, but that is out of your control. It is good that you say you know you were running well, but there is a difference between being able to say this and understanding it deeply.

      Navark said about the same thing, but it's worth repeating it in slightly different words.

      What is tilt? There are many aspects of tilt, and their presence will vary from player to player. One component is a feeling of injustice as you do not match your (possibly unrealistic) expectations. One reaction is to play worse, making decisions you would not make under calm reflection. The cards don't remember that they disappointed you before, and while it might be some sort of poetic justice to take back some chips with a bad beat after receiving one, it may mean you are taking some bad gambles you would not approve under calm reflection.

      Streaks in which you run really well and streaks in which nothing works are both normal parts of winning poker. Concentrate on playing well, and don't be too concerned with your results in the short run.