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[NL2-NL10] FR NL10 SSS AKs folded

    • russo79
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 30
      Absolute Life Poker Subdue 0.05/0.10, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

      saw flop | [color:#C00000]saw showdown[/color]

      Button Hero ($2.09)
      SB ($4.62)
      BB ($9.11)
      UTG ($4.86)
      UTG+1 [color:#C00000]Villain ($2.77)[/color]
      CO-1 ($1.86)
      CO ($1.75)

      Preflop: Hero is on the Button with A :club: K :club:
      1 fold, Villain calls 0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to 0.50, 2 folds, Villain calls 0.40.

      Flop (1.15) J :club: T :diamond: 3 :diamond:
      Villain checks, Hero bets 0.80, Villain calls 0.80.

      Turn (2.75) 6 :heart:
      Villain moves all-in for 1.47, 1 fold

      Was this a good fold? As you can see, villain was passive until the turn (just calling).
  • 6 replies
    • snowylee
      Joined: 26.01.2007 Posts: 701
      I believe you shouldve called? At least thats the way I see it after putting forth a couple of AK questions myself :) , could be wrong though, wouldnt be the first time lol
    • xylere
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Push flop to avoid such situations) you have 2 overcards + gutshot + bdor flush = automatic push if your stack:pot ratio is 1.5:1 or lower (i would push even with slightly bigger ratio, especially against some weird short stack)))

      Update: some short explanation on AK + gutshot hands
      The reason why we are willing to finish this hand on the flop is our equity and fold equity.

      For instance, against fairly tight range 22-99, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ we have 46% of equity. Basically we will have > then 45% equity against almost any possible range... therefore, we just push to maximize our fold equity and win the pot right there and if it doesn`t work out we still have almost 50% chance to win...

      Lets calculate EV for the worst case scenario:

      - pot 8 BB (actual pot is 9,5BB, but blinds are assumed raked )
      - we assume he folds in 50% of the time and calls with a range TT, 33, AJs-ATs, KJs+, AJo-ATo, KJo+ (38% equity against this range)

      EV=0.5*(8BB) + 0.5*(0.32*(24BB) - 0.68*(16BB)) = 4BB + 0.5*(7.68BB - 10.88BB)= +2.36 BB

      We can modify the range and assumtions, but its clearly +EV)

      I would laso call it on the turn, because of the pot odds... but again, just to avoid it - push flop)
    • russo79
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 30
      I'm not sure about the pot odds though

      after his raise on the turn, the pot will be of 2.75 + 1.47 - 0.15 (rake) = 5.07

      My remaining stack was of 2.09 - 1.30 = 0.79

      So the pot odds would be of 5.07 : 0.79 = 6.4 : 1

      If i didn't made any mistake I have 4 + 3 + 3 = 10 outs (Q, A, K)
      So my pot odds are of (46 - 10) : 10 = 36 : 10 = 3.6 : 1

      6.4 : 1 > 3.6 : 1

      which would have been a good call (damn i'm stupid X( )

      PS: This calculations were made while I was writing this message.
      Got to rework my mental calculation performance and forget the calculator ;)

      How do you guys do to calculate all this things in < 15 seconds???
    • xylere
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      What do you mean you are not sure about the pot odds?)

      You probably can`t count all your outs as "clear". For instance if he has KJ, then your K outs are no good any more...

      Anyway, calculating approximate pot odds shouldn`t take more then couple of seconds, given that most pokerooms offer you exact pot size at any moment. And estimating approximate equity is a matter of experience, download pokerstove or equilator and work with them every day)

      But you don`t need to make a lot of calculations during the game, just practice after the session and after some time you will "feel" thoose profitable situations)
    • russo79
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 30

      Forgot to remove that sentence once I made my calculations :)

      Thanks for the advice.
    • Utahmar
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      Or you remember the odds - outs, 10 outs 1:1.6 to river, 1:3.7 to turn.