RNG going crazy since February?!

    • nemad78
      nemad78
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      Joined: 16.11.2008 Posts: 7
      Hi,

      I don't won't to start another subject is it or is it not rigged topic, so just a few facts... If you don't want to get bored go to the end of text where I say "THESE ARE MY QUESTIONS:" :)

      I have more than million hands behind me (on different sites, on Stars alone about 600k), worst case scenario I'm break even player (all together my cashouts, including rake back and tournaments, are a bit over 4.000$ in past 3 years)... Survived down swings, and up swings... I'm multitabler, main game if FL holdem, usually full ring (15 to 24 tables) and recently tried short tables (10 to 20 tables, mostly 15)... I play poker as additional income (to pay bills mostly) so I take my play quite seriously... My limits are up to 0.50/1$ (played few deeply out bankroll at 1/2$ or 2/4$ - had to try because of previously mentioned bills)...

      From February this year my sessions ends, in most cases, quite bad for me... I'm down about 300$ (100$ was when I played out of bankroll at 2/4$)... I just can't have several winning sessions... I'm talking about more than 100k hands for sure (maybe 200k I'm not sure, currently I don't have any tracker program running but can easily check)...

      And I'm loosing from, sorry guys, complete idiots (for poker at least)... I'm loosing from people who are several thousands USD bad (according to PTR and similar sites)...

      I'm not complaining because I'm loosing - problem is how I lose. Biggest losses are at river (gutshots, second pair) mostly under 10%, best case 20% chances to open... Sure I lose to better hands too, but those are not the costly one usually... Way too many flushes, 4 cards in a row, etc... Sessions that should, by statistics, be absolute winners (W$SD well over 50%, tight aggressive play, ...) are break even or negative ones... Sure, I tilted a bit, played my C game... But to avoid that discussion too lets say I'm a terrible player who just had luck for three years or my play went really bad...

      So, THESE ARE MY QUESTIONS:

      I do understand how deceptive can a bad beats can look when they come in row, but it looks to me like something is very out of the order with Stars RNG... Just too many runner-runners, gusthots, flushes...

      Has anyone recently seriously analyse community cards that are opening? Seems to me it is quite out of probabilities that I've learned here...

      Is it, and how if it is, possible to analyse community cards with PokerTracker? And also, is it possible (and again how) to analyse structure of lost hands with it (for example how many hands I lost to runner-runners, how many guthosts did idiots hit on the river mostly very far from pot odds)? Step by step instructions would be very much appreciated?

      Since this is very serious community, is anyone here interested in doing such analyses since I'm sure that we can gather very large sample size? I do not have the knowledge to do something like that, but I'm more than wiling to upload all of my hands from previous two months for such a purpose...

      I just doubt that this is normal downswing... Couple of regulars I talked to feels just the same as I do...


      Regards,
      Nenad Miletic
  • 20 replies
    • EasyOnEAS
      EasyOnEAS
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      Joined: 16.08.2010 Posts: 59
      You see patterns in something that should have been random...

      But then again, something random can turn out to look like patterns... Ye, you can never be sure when it comes to randomness.

      Questions is, do you believe what your seeing with your own eyes?


      I cant help you much, but I wish you luck in studying this.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
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      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      The first question you need to ask yourself is why after 5 years of flawless operation would PokerStars change their RNG suddenly and without notice.

      Obviously they wouldn't. If you want to see how mathematically sick variance can be take a look at a graphical representation of it sometime. One perfectly valid outcome for a winning player is to be losing for several hundred thousands hands.

      Also PTR does monitor these sorts of things. If they could somehow prove Stars RNG was messed up they would post an article about it.
    • ro1chwvd
      ro1chwvd
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      Joined: 25.11.2009 Posts: 122
      Maybe Stars is Paying PTR to not post such an article :)
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by ro1chwvd
      Maybe Stars is Paying PTR to not post such an article :)
      Maybe our government is secretly ruled by reptilians.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      so.. your complaining cause your down 225bb?



      Also any reg with half a brain will tell you you run bad. In fact they should tell every fish that's complaining they're running bad. It's the smartest thing they can do and the only +EV thing to say to fish.


      exept for that.. I understand your frustrated but there's really nothing a post like this can do about it. Just focus on improving more then playing. Your down about -5bb/1k hands or -0.5/100 if your sample is 100k. it gets even less obviously if you played more. So your slightly below a breakeven player.. Don't you think it's more likely your just a breakeven player currently? just asking.. cause if you crushed those limits i don't think you could go on such a big downswing.


      Even if you find someone to analyse all your hands to see if you get unlucky.. Why? What do you gain from it? to confirm you went into a horrible downswing? Better off posting some hands in a hand evaluation forum instead.
    • gape0000
      gape0000
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      Joined: 28.08.2007 Posts: 628
      I'm just curious why u play so many tables at once cause it seems to me that its hurting and not helping you with your winrate if u earned just 4k$ in over million of played hands in low limit FL. Would make sense to cut down the number and concentrate on playing better with less tables - money wise at least.

      Also instead of going trough your whole database looking for something that isn't there why don't u rather use that time to improve your game and discuss some of your hands and leaks with those regulars then wasting your time and energy for useless stuff.

      Gl and have fun :)
    • nemad78
      nemad78
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      Joined: 16.11.2008 Posts: 7
      At the beginning I said - don't want to discuss is it or is it not rigged. How flawless or not their operation is none of my concern.

      Don't know how many hands you played, but after more than a million I believe that I know (and that maybe wrong) how a down swing looks. Lizards in government? I'm almost sure it is true for every government on this world...

      No, I'm not complaining for going down 225bb, went more before and it is not problem. It is two long months how it is happening and more than 100k hands have been played. If it was 10k hands that would be just fine, even 400bb would be ok... Happens, I know.

      But losing for two straight months from complete idiots who hold heavy underdog hands and catch 3 to 5 outs regularly?! Yup, crushed that limits before, but no math is good against this. And two regulars I talked to also made fine earnings on these and have similar problem now...

      Hmmm, yes I would like to analyse that if I could. Just to see, I'm probably wrong and it could fit into some math that could explain it.

      Would it hurt if it was done on a sample of couple of million hands?! Why wouldn't you give your hands (it already can be bought on PTR) for something like that?

      I, unfortunately, don't have the knowledge... Hoped someone who knows (either to create a script that would do that or to explain me how-to in PT) would help me do it. Also hoped that if someone has similar problem would found interest in contributing hands for such analyses.

      Gape000 - so many tables are because of rake back (in this case VIP program)... Since I can't build normal bankroll for play 2/4$ or higher (I have to withdraw so I could pay my bills) I'm playing many tables (I go for less bb per 100 hands) on lower limits and earn FPPs that I convert to cash...

      So, again - don't care if it rigged or not? And lets say I'm below average player...
      Does anyone know how I could analyse these hands?
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Hi Nemad

      I hope I wont be too blunt, but if your are going down for over 100K hands chances are there are some leaks in your game. My advice is review hands (the biggest pots lost) and see how you could have played the hand differently. ( am saying that because i am talking from experience I just had my first 2 losing months as well and reviewing my hands I can tell you that I could blame a lot things but the real reason is that I did not play great. So my advice to you is put your shit together and work on your game or start playing poker recreationally and don't take it too seriously

      Kind regards

      Thazar
    • nemad78
      nemad78
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      Joined: 16.11.2008 Posts: 7
      I agree with you. Looked at my hands for hours, before writing here...

      Is it my A game? Nope, definitely it is not. Reason - multitabling mainly.

      Is that the reason why I'm constantly down. Hardly. Opponents are no better either... Done it before and won...

      That's why I want to analyse community cards with too many flush draws turning to flushes (heads up play so too many times), seeing boards with 7T9 8 J with other side calling all of my bets and holding Q3o... Hitting 3 to 5 outs on river costs a lot. Especially if it happens in (lets say) 12% to 20% of cases instead of 6% to 10%.

      But, I am not sure. Like I said I'm well aware how bad beats can influence judgement. I'd just like to check!

      But it doesn't matter... Just lost another session... Against same shity hands and same idiots...

      If anyone has the answer how to analyse lost hands (hands lost on river, hands lost that were 80% or more favorites, etc) in PokerTracker or manualy please contact me or write... Thanks to all for answers!
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      I mean there are times when you play good and times when you play bad, there times then you run good and times when you run bad.

      If you play good all the time it does nt matter if you run good or bad your green line gonna go up. FI you play so so all the time then you are highly dependent on variance, you can be break even on a day when you run good and losing big on a day when you run bad as opposed to break even on a day when you run bad to winning big on a day when you run good.


      don't compare your games with others. the things we tend to forget (and I make the mistake every day) is that fish get good hands as well and often we don't give them enough credit. looking at it logically poker rooms (especially the big ones) have no interest in rigging their RNG. They make millions every day already and they would risk to lose it all. by keeping it fair they can only win. whoever wins the hand they win money as long as their is a flop. if their is no flop, so what their will be a flop soon enough :) .

      think about it how much they have to lose by rigging it. and for what to keep fish on their site. Dont forget we the reg are the one generating the most rake by multitabling.

      So once again I think your reasoning is flowed. work on your game and thinks will go better. that's what I tell myself.



      Regards

      Thazar

      PS: add me on skype if you want: newfishontheblock
    • EasyOnEAS
      EasyOnEAS
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      Joined: 16.08.2010 Posts: 59
      Originally posted by thazar
      looking at it logically poker rooms (especially the big ones) have no interest in rigging their RNG. They make millions every day already and they would risk to lose it all. by keeping it fair they can only win. whoever wins the hand they win money as long as their is a flop. if their is no flop, so what their will be a flop soon enough :) .
      You are wrong. They can have a big interest in rigging the game for more rake.

      If the -EV players dont win they wont play. The +EV players plays anyway.

      So it is good for the site that the -EV players run good and that the +EV players who plays anyway run bad.

      And they are not risking anything if they do it correctly. Who do you think are investigating them to make sure they are not cheating? I dont think its anyone atm.

      And how many of the players do you think would have to get together to prove anything?

      Everybody just assume poker cant be rigged because its risky for the site to do or because its not worth anything.
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
      Originally posted by thazar
      looking at it logically poker rooms (especially the big ones) have no interest in rigging their RNG. They make millions every day already and they would risk to lose it all. by keeping it fair they can only win. whoever wins the hand they win money as long as their is a flop. if their is no flop, so what their will be a flop soon enough :) .
      You are wrong. They can have a big interest in rigging the game for more rake.

      If the -EV players dont win they wont play. The +EV players plays anyway.

      So it is good for the site that the -EV players run good and that the +EV players who plays anyway run bad.

      And they are not risking anything if they do it correctly. Who do you think are investigating them to make sure they are not cheating? I dont think its anyone atm.

      And how many of the players do you think would have to get together to prove anything?

      Everybody just assume poker cant be rigged because its risky for the site to do or because its not worth anything.
      What I mean is that you seriously think it is worth for them making more money in the short term risking losing it all when they make already several millions $ daily without rigging it? does not seem worth to me. but if you do think it is rigged well all I can say is don't play poker in that poker room.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
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      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
      You are wrong. They can have a big interest in rigging the game for more rake.
      PokerStars is raking multi millions of dollars a month playing by the rules. Why would they risk the loss of continued profits for a non-existent gain by rigging hands.

      Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
      And they are not risking anything if they do it correctly. Who do you think are investigating them to make sure they are not cheating? I dont think its anyone atm.
      The AP Scandal and the recent Chinese DON problem, as well as dozens of others over the past years, have proven that many people are watching.

      Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
      And how many of the players do you think would have to get together to prove anything?
      History tells us that one post on 2+2 or one post on PTR would be enough.

      Originally posted by EasyOnEAS
      Everybody just assume poker cant be rigged because its risky for the site to do or because its not worth anything.
      There is not any credible evidence that it is worthwhile and non-risky for the site to be rigged. All historical evidence shows that it is very risky and no one has ever suggested anything approaching a rigging algorithm that would provably increase rake.

      It's all just fish fantasy. :f_p:
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
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      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      guys heres my POV.

      do not let experience limit you. there is a reason why the wright brothers managed to invent flying technology for humans. it's because they believed in what was not possible(at that time). similarly, it could just be true that poker is rigged!!!!!!!!!!!! it could be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      but the difference between OP and the wright brothers is that the wright brothers try to solve the problem while OP is trying to seek for external resources to help him solve the problem. in this case, OP seem alittle cleverer. however, i highly doubt that the wright didn't try to find likeminded people to help. probably they couldnt find them because 1)lack of resource(simply forum/internet), 2)almost everyone thinks its not possible.

      with modern age technology, i really do think OP can be able to gather some likeminded people to achieve this monster goal, and prove those doubters wrong, win a nobel prize for poker. also i would think that most that replies to you in this thread are not in support of your view. hence i suggest you put in some effort to search through this forum for those OP of "OMFG POKER IS RIGGED" threads and seek their help, i'm pretty sure they will be more than willing.

      oh and on a sidenote, i'm surprised that after operating for so many years, pokerstars just one day suddenly decided to crank up their RNG too boost their profits. you say you noticed this phenomena happen in feb.. was it after a software update? geez really gotta look into it. maybe give Isai Scheinberg a call?

      if all else fails, play at some other site if that works. but strangely if pokerstars the biggest poker site needs to rig it's RNG and yet is able to get away with it, then all other sites would have followed the same. then you probably should go play live, i doubt they rig those games? if that should fail, then you should start hosting games and insist on dealing them yourself. make sure that you change your deck periodically as these people may mark cards or something.

      cheers, make history for online poker!
    • nemad78
      nemad78
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      Joined: 16.11.2008 Posts: 7
      "I don't won't to start another subject is it or is it not rigged topic" was what I wrote as first sentence... Thanks for respecting this...

      Funny that you spent some time writing all that stuff, but not once answered any of my questions... Like some of you were annoyed with two simple questions - does anyone at all check things like that and since I can analyse almost everything in my game can I analyse these things also... No one knows, don't want to tell me or this is topics that is totally off limit (heresy in this world that I'm not familiar with)!?

      Ok, don't waste your and mine time... And yet, if someone know answers to my questions please write... Thanks to all who tried to help me!

      All the best!
    • thazar
      thazar
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      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      what I have checked in the past is how many times I got AA or KK over a large sample (nearly 1M hands) and how manuy times they were winning with AI preflop. I did not go any further and the numbers were spot on what they should be. It is easy for one with HEM or PT3 to do any of the checks. OS if you have any doubts run the checks yourself and post anything you find doubtful.
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
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      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      [quote]Originally posted by nemad78
      Has anyone recently seriously analyse community cards that are opening?
      [quote]

      Yes, sites like PTR and communities such as PokerStrategy and 2+2 are looking at stats often enough to see this sort of thing.

      Originally posted by nemad78
      Is it, and how if it is, possible to analyse community cards with PokerTracker? And also, is it possible (and again how) to analyse structure of lost hands with it (for example how many hands I lost to runner-runners, how many guthosts did idiots hit on the river mostly very far from pot odds)?
      The easiest way to do this is to look at how many times you were dealt certain hole cards, how many times you hit flushes in specific situations, and anything else where hard holdem statistics can be easily applied.

      You can then run your sample through a statistics program that will tell you how far your sample deviates from the norm.

      If you don't already know how to run a statistical sample you will first need to study basic statistics. (Like the first 25-50% of the most basic statistic textbook would be plenty.)
    • jeangab123
      jeangab123
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      Joined: 22.01.2011 Posts: 122
      Go buy this

      http://www.amazon.com/Mathematical-Statistics-Applications/dp/0534377416

      Read it - thouroghly. Then you'll be able to analyze your own data as well as several other database if you convice some people to lend you theres. If you notice significant and improbable deviation from the expected value, then you can raise some suspiscions. But never forget poker is an extremly complex game, because there's so many hands different community cards combinations (Combination 5 in 52 is a really big number). You'll need an enormous sample to claim with a good % of trust in your result that the numbers are rigged.
    • EasyOnEAS
      EasyOnEAS
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      Joined: 16.08.2010 Posts: 59
      Originally posted by nemad78
      "I don't won't to start another subject is it or is it not rigged topic" was what I wrote as first sentence... Thanks for respecting this...
      Your statement is that there is something wrong with Stars RNG... You are losing to idiots too much. You are being outdrawn too much for too long, to idiots with silly hands. But we are not to discuss if online poker is rigged or not? I cant answer your questions, but I am interested in the topic.

      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      PokerStars is raking multi millions of dollars a month playing by the rules. Why would they risk the loss of continued profits for a non-existent gain by rigging hands.
      If you use your imagination Im sure you will eventually see how rigging game can be profitable. But its very hard to so when its the complete oposite of what you have ever thought before.

      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      The AP Scandal and the recent Chinese DON problem, as well as dozens of others over the past years, have proven that many people are watching.
      In AP scandal the guy reicived a file from the site. To catch DON colluders you can only look for unnormal play from people with location- connection. I dont see how this proves that "many people are watching" ?

      Who are watching the millions who play on stars? Do you think anyone are looking after if the -EV players run better than the +EV for instance?

      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      History tells us that one post on 2+2 or one post on PTR would be enough.
      Please explain.

      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      There is not any credible evidence that it is worthwhile and non-risky for the site to be rigged. All historical evidence shows that it is very risky and no one has ever suggested anything approaching a rigging algorithm that would provably increase rake.
      What kind of "evidence" do you need to understand that rigging a site IS profitably if done right? I already said how.. If you think I am wrong, tell me why. "All historical evidence" is what? And why would anyone suggest a rigging algorithm?

      You are so sure its not rigged, for all the wrong reasons.


      Sorry nemad, this will be my last post.
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