Ever feel like that downswing is comming?

    • Hahaownedlolz
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Since i got my new account on pokerstars i've been running pretty hot at the NBI hu sng. Currently running at a little over 40% ROI. EV adjusted 26% ROI. Over a really small sample however. I've probably played some of the best poker i've ever played. Yet i don't feel like i deserve to run at 26% ROI (ev adjusted). Everytime i've ran good over a small sample it was always followed by a disgusting amount of bad beats. Because of this i've not been putting in alot of volume.

      I did find myself asking a lot of questions.. Like why do i think i don't deserve to run good when it's obvious i'm absolutely crushing the opposition? i really have no answer for that.

      But why is it so many players believe they're supposed to run bad or expect it like me ? Just cause you run a thousand dollars above EV in one month does not mean you will run a thousand dollars under EV the next. There's absolutely no correlation between those two. Your just as likely to run above EV a thousand dollars again as you are under.
      But why do so many graphs show downswings after upswings?

      That's what i was wondering. I think many players are actually making a self-fulfilling prophecy by expecting to hit a downswing after they run hot. They probably consciously or unconsciously adjust their game after they run hot. Most likely they tighten up going away from the most (high variance) EV plays and instead go for the more safe but less EV in the long run plays.

      But surely that can't be the only thing. I think it's likely people are less inclined to study/improve their game when they run hot because they're already winning a lot of money. So they aren't putting as much effort into improving as normal or when during a downswing. And therefore their game keeps getting worse. Those two things in addition to simply just running bad is my explanation to this.

      This is not so much a question as it is a discussion of what you guys think about this.
  • 8 replies
    • Kodark
      Joined: 24.02.2011 Posts: 249
      What I find weird is if I am on downswing and move up a limit I do better than if on upswing and move up a limit.
    • luizsilveira
      Joined: 27.11.2010 Posts: 2,320
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz

      But why do so many graphs show downswings after upswings?

      Because after a downswing comes an upswing. I'd bet many graphs show upswings after downswings as well, lol. The question is just of lenght...

      Yes, every time you are in an upswing you get closer and closer to the next downswing - the same way each day you live you get closer to your death. But the point is: you can die tomorrow or you may in 100 years, but it will come. Whoever studies demographics and statistics can give you odds on each one happening, but that doesn't change the fact that it will happen or when.

      Keeping the analogy, I think the best to do in both cases is "enjoy the moment" :f_biggrin:

      The only way to avoid death is by already being dead, as the only way to (certainly) avoid a downswing is not to play poker at all. But if you take the most while you have the best of it, it will not hurt as bad when the worst eventually does come.

      Well, I'm talking too much crap but that's my 2c :f_thumbsup:
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      @Kodark i think that's most likely variance. But the "expected downswing" of cashing out, making threads you run good (also heard this one alot) and moving up stakes also applies to the self-fulfilling prophecy. Especially when moving up stakes players are likely to play tighter and therefore less optimally then usual.

      Also.. my graph today after making this thread.. The EV line doesn't even come close to justifying the sick coolers and set-ups i got in those 4 hu sng.. Pretty ugly but i guess this is a good time to watch some hu sng videos :f_biggrin:

    • Donmecon
      Joined: 21.05.2010 Posts: 39
      Whats and upswing because I would like one !
    • MatejM47
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      4 games are a really huge sample size that truly confirms your expectations.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      4 games are a really huge sample size that truly confirms your expectations.

      Way to completly miss the point of the thread and then comment on something trivial :f_thumbsup:
    • dydukas
      Joined: 01.05.2009 Posts: 1,275
      I play SNGs and every day I started with 4-8 BI downswing but managed to get break even or win at the end of the day. I don't think the players get fishier later in the day but this became standard for me. I inspected this further and found out that I was playing more tightly in the first part of the day, not pushing in less standard spots, etc. So that's my explanation of my everyday constant "downswings".
    • Wurble
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 457
      Bah, up and downswings are just part of poker... It's just probability playing out over time and you're right there is no correlation between a period of run good and run bad. The thing is though, once you've run good for like 5k hands, of course the probability of each situation is still the same but if you've been hitting every board and stacking peeps all over the place with your rockets then the inevitable downswing is getting ever nearer.

      This still confuses me because each hand is independant of the last and next, the probabilities are constant so there can be no such thing as running good or running bad, these are just situations we can identify with hindsight after the event. We can look at a graph and say yeah, clearly ran like god or got doom switched or whatever.

      Even knowing this though, after extended periods of run good all of a sudden things change, I start getting 3-bet constantly and when I call they always have the goods, my AK never hits the flop, I hardly ever hit a set and when I do it's crushed or outdrawn. I can only think that this is a downswing in action, the probabilities balancing out but people who know more than I do about statistics and maths tell me it's bollocks.