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$EV Adjusted

    • Navrark
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 339

      I am trying desperately to figure out whether or not I am a winning player. I know that I make mistakes but I also know that I play very well.

      If I run the "Holecards" report in HEM for "Winnings" vs "$EV Adjusted" I get these numbers:

      Winnings: $14,505
      $EV Adjusted: $31,447.16

      Now, my question is this: Does my skill affect the "$EV Adjusted" result or is that beyond my control?

      Next up, I want to look at my graph. Apparently when I first started playing I was a better player than I am now. The truth is that I sucked when I first started playing last month and now I play a ton better than then. I find it tough to believe that I have gotten worse rather than improved.

      It seems to me that the Redline is following exactly the bad luck I had, getting sucked out on all of the time, or always running into a big hand. How much does that Redline have to do with skill and how much to do with variance?

      Thanks for the help!
  • 2 replies
    • evertonroar
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      i wouldnt worry to much about the result when you get for the holecards in terms of EV. these are interesting to look at if you look at groupings of holecards to see if you are winning with them when leakbusting. eg are you losing alot with low PP?

      Looking at the graph below the first thing to notice is your sample size. It is not enough to determine your roi. Your graph indicates that you had better results in your first 100 or so games but not that you played better (although maybe you did). you need to relise that for instance if you have KK and run into AA, your EV will go up very slightly if you lose (as you got a little bit unlucky to lose) and go down lots if you win (as you were really lucky to win). So - if you have been 'unlucky' and running into lots of big cards, you may very well have been playing well but you could still be losing and your ev line could be going down.

      So yes the red line is effected by variance.

      If i had to make a judgement (on a very small sample size) I would say you are a breakeven player. note that if you have only played 400 games being a breakeven player is pretty good.

      whats your itm % and percent 1st, 2nd, 3rd?
    • tokyoaces
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by Navrark
      Now, my question is this: Does my skill affect the "$EV Adjusted" result or is that beyond my control?
      $EV is only for hands where you get all-in by the turn. For most 100bb players this is going to be a very small percentage of your hands.

      Have you watched any of the leak finder series here?