TURBO HUSNG = Variance

  • 6 replies
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      So you played $50 hu sng turbo's cause you make big cash? If you were 50s reg your graph wouldn't look like that..
    • Nikiforos86
      Nikiforos86
      Basic
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 22
      Err.. no, that whole graph is generated by HUSNG's (mostly the 50s, but I'd play any stake I could get action, there's not much of it on PKR) and that one big MTT I played b/c I had a ticket to it. I don't play MTT's. I can't show you on HEM because the site is not tracked very well by it but I had a good win rate for the BI for about 400 games (5-6%) then just had a massive ridiculous downswing that was caused by just me losing every single all in with dominating hands as the blinds got higher. (AA vs AK, QQ vs AJ, KK vs AQ.. and all the flips)I don't think I need to go through my hand histories to prove this, it'd be stupid of me to lie.

      How my graph look does not indicate how much of a reg I am either, even if I was going all in every hand that downswing would be a statistical outlier, much less a previously winning player over an OK sample size. The fact is that the improbable can happen. You can see players with great win rates have downswings that span lots of hands. Turbo SNG's with 3 min blinds even more so.
    • Nikiforos86
      Nikiforos86
      Basic
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 22
      Anyway for my dear friend HAHAOMGLOLCOPTER

      I have actually gone through the hand history match by match, it's approximately 26 matches

      You will have noticed in the graph that the downswing came over about 25 games. Well I was just looking through the hand histories and pretty much all but 1 or 2 which happened due to SEMI tilt and coolers, most of these matches have been lost due to unstoppable suckouts. But let me prove it to you! Here's a sample from that amazing little day session.

      Game 1- Aggro/station guy I am shoving for value: http://weaktight.com/3438898

      Same crazy guy that called the shove with K2, I cannot fold top pair with 11 BBs to his shove, sry gg he wins flip http://weaktight.com/3438904

      Game 2- Obv suck out, and he doesn't even value bet on river, crippled after and I lose a flip with 88 vs two overs when down to 12 BBs http://weaktight.com/3438901

      Game 3- This is one of those amazing winning regs. maybe I'll get a bit luckier than in the past 4 sessions, nope AA not good enough pre flop. http://weaktight.com/3438908

      Game 4- Winning reg wins again from behind! .. vs me http://weaktight.com/3438911

      Game 5- Ah the king high shove on flop and catch on turn, a classic play sir.

      http://weaktight.com/3438915

      Same game. take a stab on flop, obv value bet top pair against this king high shove dude on turn and then shove when I hit trips on river. Too bad my Q gave him a flush and we lose this one.

      http://weaktight.com/3438917

      Then I win 2 games and lose 1 through normal play, nothing to complain about (well did lose one of those with K 8 to 9 7 suited pre flop shove with 1300 chips but no biggie, that's only like 59/41 or something)

      Game 9

      Lose massive flip again http://weaktight.com/3438924

      Game 10

      Open shoves A6 pre flop (standard at 10 BB), I call with QQ for huge pot that'd win me the game, I lose http://weaktight.com/3438927

      Game 11

      About to go in for the kill with AK.. lose to A2, then he outplays me a little due to tilt by now (all above has been seen in about 2 hours) and wins a flip at 12 BB effective stacks

      http://weaktight.com/3438932

      Game 12

      Get coolered as my two pair runs into guy's straight and then lose due to not hitting much. No big suckouts at least on this one, but in the context of everything else...

      Game 13

      I win! ace high flush vs jack high flush.

      Game 14

      Vs calling station. Not sure if my river bet is too big but still, major cooler/suckout card. Note the awesome flop call with 7 high/no draw. http://weaktight.com/3438940

      That left me with 900 chips and eventually got it in with 66 vs his 10s and he won.

      Game 15

      Vs winning reg. We have light shoving dynamic at late game. He shoves 8 9 off, I call with JK pre, I lose http://weaktight.com/3438944

      Game 16 I win post flop with two pair over top pair vs winning reg

      Game 17

      I am tilting big time now; the guy was aggro according to my notes but I still should have folded this. Still... considering all the above, coolerish.

      http://weaktight.com/3438950

      Game 18

      New looking player sucks out on me big time pre flop, K10 vs JJ

      http://weaktight.com/3438952

      Anyway it just sort of goes on like that for another few games, although admittedly not as bad as above, mostly flips/standard play not going my way.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Won't go over the hands as it's pointless. And i simply do not care either if you can't even type my name right.

      One hand of a match does not say much at all. Not much reads on villian so can't really judge them that well either. But you have to realise that it doesn't matter if you run good or not.

      You can't change your luck so might aswell improve the things you are able to improve.
    • Nikiforos86
      Nikiforos86
      Basic
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 22
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Won't go over the hands as it's pointless. And i simply do not care either if you can't even type my name right.

      One hand of a match does not say much at all. Not much reads on villian so can't really judge them that well either. But you have to realise that it doesn't matter if you run good or not.

      You can't change your luck so might aswell improve the things you are able to improve.
      Of course, you're correct. Work on your game and don't focus on variance, 100% agree. ....... However this is downswings reports forum and I posted one for the lolz of it and because it's kinda funny to see the big win and loss.

      Not sure why you immediately assumed that I jumped into a game I'd no experience in, or that "I'm not a reg" whatever that means. It was just an unfortunate downswing doing to losing a bunch of flips primarily. Anyway I agree with your overall point so no worries.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      The graph didn't look like a $50 hu sng graph when i looked at it quickly. Also quite few games for someone who plays so high.. Plus your quite new to this forum + basic so i quickly jumped to conclusions.


      Unless you filtered it or have played husng on other site. i'd have expected someone who plays that high to have a way higher amount of games played ;)


      I should probably stay out of this forum.. :f_biggrin: