[NL20-NL50] [NL50 RUSH SH] 3bet AK, A on the flop

    • HELLutek
      HELLutek
      Gold
      Joined: 19.07.2008 Posts: 739
      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($38.50)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($28.05)
      BTN ($50)
      Hero (SB) ($114.90)
      BB ($362.45)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB A:diamond: K:spade:
      3 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.25

      Flop: 6:club: A:heart: 2:heart: ($12.50, 2 players)
      Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

      Turn: 2:diamond: ($24.50, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero calls $14

      River: 6:spade: ($52.50, 2 players)
      Hero ??

      Villain stats: 34% ATS from button, fold to 3bet 40% (2/5), fold to cbet in 3bet pot 50% (1/2). ~500 hands.

      Should I check and let him bluff or should I bet and hope he has has an ace?
      What are the chances he will bluff second time?
      Comments on previous streets are also welcome.
  • 4 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well when you check the river i think his checking back all the worse A's in his range so you lose value against those.

      So the question is how likely he is to bluff his busted FD which is the only hand he can have that has no showdown value and there's not that many flushes in his range given the A :heart: on the flop takes out many of his FD combos.

      I think C/R the turn is also a good option since his pretty much priced in with anything he has at that point since the pot would be 76$ and he would have to call only 24more so he needs less then 25% equity and pretty much has to call off with FD or AX given the good pot odds.
    • HELLutek
      HELLutek
      Gold
      Joined: 19.07.2008 Posts: 739
      I agree with everything you wrote, but don't you expect he's just floating, with a pocket pair or something, from time to time?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Don´t really see why you didn´t c/rai turn if you check to him on the turn but the way you played you should check to give him option to turn his middle pp-s into air and try to get you off KK-TT. Also he might valuebet with AQ/AJ
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by HELLutek
      I agree with everything you wrote, but don't you expect he's just floating, with a pocket pair or something, from time to time?
      Yeah people sometimes call random pairs on A high boards for some reason, but then they figure when you check you can still have them beat and try to bluff you off JJ-KK.