[NL2-NL10] AQs, cont bet all in?

    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

      UTG ($6.80)
      UTG+1 ($4.70)
      UTG+2 ($1.85)
      HERO MP1 ($1.90)
      MP2 ($9.65)
      MP3 ($2.55)
      CO ($2.45)
      BTN ($4.05)
      SB ($8.30)
      BB ($3.90)

      Holecards dealt to HERO: A Q

      Pre-flop: ($0.15, 10 players)
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, HERO bets $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $0.40.

      Flop: Q K J ($1.65, 3 players)
      UTG checks, HERO goes all-in $1.40, MP2 calls $1.40, UTG folds

      Turn: J ($4.45, 2 players)

      River: J ($4.45, 2 players)
  • 6 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      yep) automatically :)
    • Strongsl
      Strongsl
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2007 Posts: 3,308
      Well, for SSS, this is a trash hand and with more than 1 villain we should c/f. So, why c.bet here?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by Strongsl
      Well, for SSS, this is a trash hand and with more than 1 villain we should c/f. So, why c.bet here?
      for the number of reasons:

      1) your stack:pot ratio. with 1 caller you need to win only in 30% of the time.

      2) On this flop you have a good chance of beeing ahead, since the better hands (AA, KK, AK) would likely reraise pre-flop. And against two pairs we have enough equity: 30% against KQ and 33% against KJ, because of our gutshot and Ace outs.

      3) We have some fold equity and maybe even quite underestimated. UTG looks very weak. I do not think there is a high chance that he limped/called monster pre-flop, so I would put him on pocket pair. In this case our FE is quite good)

      against the range 22-TT, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo we have 71% equity. equity is so high because I included all the pocket pairs (22-TT), but in my opinion it is quite reasonable, given the pre-flop action. anyway, push here is clearly +EV
    • Strongsl
      Strongsl
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2007 Posts: 3,308
      ok! ty xylere!
      And the Mp2? what do u have to say about him?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      well, you can`t say much without having stats. But with the average coldcalling range from MP on this limit he probably did hit a piece of the flop. So, if we assume we have a strong Fold equity against UTG (I explained why in the previous post), then this is the player who is going to call us) But again, as i wrote in the previous post, even if he hit two pairs, we still have enough equity. I don`t think it is very likely that he has JJ, QQ or KK. So we are in a playable shape)
    • Strongsl
      Strongsl
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2007 Posts: 3,308
      ok! ty xylere!