*Originally posted by Wriggers*

Hmmm yeah thanks a lot for that. I've sorted it and basically got 29 combinations that beat me by the river, and 78 combinations that I beat when we get to the river, although only 54 that would call a river bet.

This comes to 54 : 29

Or just under 2 : 1

So that's obviously my odds of winning the pot when my river bet is called, but I suppose we can count in the combinations that won't call a river bet as we'll still win the pot with it, so thats:

78 : 29

We'll call that 2.5 : 1 for simplicity's sake.

Now this is the part i'm confused about, so 2.5 times we will win the $15.25 in the pot, and 1 time we will lose the river bet. So how do we calculate the bet sizing on the river. From my (very limited) mathematical knowledge, these odds mean we could profitably overbet the pot to about $20, but that doesn't sound right

Again, apologies for any glaring errors, and my continued going on about it
I'm trying to get a lot more in touch with the mathematical side of the game at the moment

Pot on the River is $15.25 .

Now we have to think, what hands will call $15?

Then we write down those hands again.

I guess, all the hands that beats us will call or raise.

How about hands we beat?

- Maybe then ratio of wins:loses will change.

Now we have to think, what hands will call $10? Or $5?

Maybe all hands are calling $5.

Well, in each scenario:

1. we first think about hands which will call each size : $5/$10/$15;

2. We do our combos counting for each $ bet;

3. Then we got again that ratio something like 1:1 - 1:2;

4. We can change our ratio to the percentage;

5. And finally, we can put it into EV calculation.

Question is if there are hands he is folding on the River.

If not., then Ev calc would be something like this:

EV(River bet) = (What we win) - (What we lose)

EV(River bet) = [EQ*(What we win) – (1-EQ)*(What we lose)]

In equities place we put our ratio/percentage.

- What we win = his call + dead money =

= $15.25+x

- What we lose = other part of money = what we bet now = x

EV(River bet) = [EQ*($15.25+x) – (1-EQ)*(x)]

I hope it is all correct. To be sure I'll click - ask judge

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