[NL20-NL50] [NL50FR] AQ on paired board.

    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Villain 16/11/2.7 over 1k hands. Fold to Flop Cbet is 41 and Turn Cbet 50. Also around 20 for Raise Flop Cbet.

      Now I think I played this hand correctly up until the river, on the flop he can be calling with a lot of mid-pairs or some weaker Q. On the turn he probably won't be giving up anything he's calling on the flop. But the river I really think I should have checked behind.

      He could have been calling down with a flush draw but then betting the river gets us no more money anyway, I think he's raising any 7 on the flop anyway so I never had him on that. So yeah, I think I should have checked behind the river.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2 (Hero):
      $50.50
      MP1:
      $43.80
      MP2:
      $50.00
      MP3:
      $50.20
      CO:
      $24.75
      BU:
      $50.00
      SB:
      $50.00
      BB:
      $50.75


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with Q, A.
      Hero raises to $1.50, 6 folds, BB calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($3.25) Q, 7, 7 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00.

      Turn: ($7.25) A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.00, BB calls $4.00.

      River: ($15.25) T (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $7.00, BB calls $7.00.

      Final Pot: $29.25.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows two pairs, aces and queens(Qd Ah).
      BB shows a full-house, queens full of sevens(Qc Qh).

      BB wins with a full-house, queens full of sevens(Qc Qh).


      Either way, wtf was this guy doing not raising his 2nd nut boat against me at any point :D
  • 8 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      I don't mind a small valuebet on the river. He could have the occasional AX hand that calls flop (like AK, AJ, with a draw).

      You also bet small enough that a 3rd pair might still call if he called turn (although a lot of tight guys just fold the turn there).

      This is one of those spots where our mind might play tricks on us in the sense that we are driven to look at the results more than anything else. For example if he would show up with QK here or AK you probably wouldn't even remember much about the hand.

      My recommendation would be for you to try to list the entire range of hands you think villain gets to the river with and split it up in parts you beat and lose to. Further split the part that you win versus in a part that calls and one that doesn't.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Hmmm thanks :D Let's see, hands that he would get to the river with, i'll leave out raising now as obviously he could do anything if he's not raising that full house there:

      AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, QK, QJ, QT, A7, 76, 78, 79s, 75s.

      Win 10, Lose 9, Split 1

      Calls when I win: KK, AK, AJ, AT, QK, QJ, QT

      I've put the maximum range imo out there, although maybe he would get to the river with JJ.

      Anyway i'm pretty bad with maths so if someone could help me out here, when I bet out on the river I get called 7 times and win, and get called 9 times and lose (Maybe add in the split?). How do I make the river bet size profitable? Thanks :D
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      You have 1K hands on him so you'd assume he's somewhere near decent.. I like the bet on river because:

      - he might peel one off on the flop with Ax hands

      - he might call your bet on the turn with Q-hands because he knows that the A is a great card to fire a second barrel on.

      I had a hard time coming up with hands that a ABC player would have with his line on flop/turn but after showdown you see that people are fish :tongue:
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Hmmm thanks :D Let's see, hands that he would get to the river with, i'll leave out raising now as obviously he could do anything if he's not raising that full house there:

      AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, QK, QJ, QT, A7, 76, 78, 79s, 75s.

      Win 10, Lose 9, Split 1

      Calls when I win: KK, AK, AJ, AT, QK, QJ, QT

      I've put the maximum range imo out there, although maybe he would get to the river with JJ.

      Anyway i'm pretty bad with maths so if someone could help me out here, when I bet out on the river I get called 7 times and win, and get called 9 times and lose (Maybe add in the split?). How do I make the river bet size profitable? Thanks :D

      Hello.
      Q :spade: , 7 :spade: , 7 :diamond: , A :diamond: , T :heart:
      This is the board you have on the River.
      For the math part. I'll give you some examples,
      but you will have to do the rest yourself.

      How many KK Villain has?
      - There are 6 combos of KK total.
      - K:heart: ,K :spade: ;
      - K:heart: ,K :diamond: ;
      - K:heart: ,K :club: ;
      - K:diamond: ,K :spade: ;
      - K:club: ,K :diamond: ;
      - K:spade: ,K :club: .

      You can do the same thing with other hands.
      Let's say. How about AKo, AKs?
      - Things change a little bit here as you have an Ace and
      there is also an Ace on the board.
      So, thats 2 Aces in the deck. Also 4 Kings in the deck.
      See:
      - A:club:
      - A :spade:

      And Kings:
      - K:spade: ;
      - K :heart: ;
      - K :diamond: ;
      - K :club: .

      Therefore, that would be 8 combos of AKs and AKo.

      You should count all of your combos on the winning side and then
      other combos on the losing side.

      [Winning combos] : [Losing combos] =
      entire range of hands you think villain gets to the river with and split it up in parts you beat and lose to


      Hope that helps.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Hmmm yeah thanks a lot for that. I've sorted it and basically got 29 combinations that beat me by the river, and 78 combinations that I beat when we get to the river, although only 54 that would call a river bet.

      This comes to 54 : 29

      Or just under 2 : 1

      So that's obviously my odds of winning the pot when my river bet is called, but I suppose we can count in the combinations that won't call a river bet as we'll still win the pot with it, so thats:

      78 : 29

      We'll call that 2.5 : 1 for simplicity's sake.

      Now this is the part i'm confused about, so 2.5 times we will win the $15.25 in the pot, and 1 time we will lose the river bet. So how do we calculate the bet sizing on the river. From my (very limited) mathematical knowledge, these odds mean we could profitably overbet the pot to about $20, but that doesn't sound right :D

      Again, apologies for any glaring errors, and my continued going on about it :D I'm trying to get a lot more in touch with the mathematical side of the game at the moment :)
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Hmmm yeah thanks a lot for that. I've sorted it and basically got 29 combinations that beat me by the river, and 78 combinations that I beat when we get to the river, although only 54 that would call a river bet.

      This comes to 54 : 29

      Or just under 2 : 1

      So that's obviously my odds of winning the pot when my river bet is called, but I suppose we can count in the combinations that won't call a river bet as we'll still win the pot with it, so thats:

      78 : 29

      We'll call that 2.5 : 1 for simplicity's sake.

      Now this is the part i'm confused about, so 2.5 times we will win the $15.25 in the pot, and 1 time we will lose the river bet. So how do we calculate the bet sizing on the river. From my (very limited) mathematical knowledge, these odds mean we could profitably overbet the pot to about $20, but that doesn't sound right :D

      Again, apologies for any glaring errors, and my continued going on about it :D I'm trying to get a lot more in touch with the mathematical side of the game at the moment :)

      Pot on the River is $15.25 .
      Now we have to think, what hands will call $15?
      Then we write down those hands again.
      I guess, all the hands that beats us will call or raise.
      How about hands we beat?
      - Maybe then ratio of wins:loses will change.


      Now we have to think, what hands will call $10? Or $5?
      Maybe all hands are calling $5.

      Well, in each scenario:
      1. we first think about hands which will call each size : $5/$10/$15;
      2. We do our combos counting for each $ bet;
      3. Then we got again that ratio something like 1:1 - 1:2;
      4. We can change our ratio to the percentage;
      5. And finally, we can put it into EV calculation.


      Question is if there are hands he is folding on the River.
      If not., then Ev calc would be something like this:
      EV(River bet) = (What we win) - (What we lose)
      EV(River bet) = [EQ*(What we win) – (1-EQ)*(What we lose)]

      In equities place we put our ratio/percentage.

      - What we win = his call + dead money =
      = $15.25+x

      - What we lose = other part of money = what we bet now = x

      EV(River bet) = [EQ*($15.25+x) – (1-EQ)*(x)]

      I hope it is all correct. To be sure I'll click - ask judge :f_biggrin: .
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      seems fine
      Just want to add you should mostly bet if you feel that you´re ahead 50% and he might call with worse hands. Right now it is quite hard him to put on QQ or even 7x and if he shoves we can fold there our top two pair, but very likely he may call down our 5$ bet with KQ, QJ, also he may have some A high flushdraws that he would likely going to call. So there is a lot of value betting river, since imo close to 90% you´re ahead and just question is how many times you get called down by Ax, Qx hands and decide then if you want to bet 5$ or 10$-12$
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Thanks a lot :) Yeah I think betting about $5-$7 on the river would yield the most profit in this spot. It would give Qx hands irresistable odds to call after calling the flop and turn, whereas a $10-$12 bet would probably push all the Qx hands out and leave only Ax hands and hands that beat me.