[NL20-NL50] [FR] NL50, JJ(sb)

    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      €0.25/€0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      125.20
      16.45
      50.00
      25.00
      46.70
      108.75
      50.00
      Villain45.70


      Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J.
      3 folds, MP3 calls €0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to €2.50, BB folds, MP3 calls €2.00.

      Flop: (€5.5) 3, 4, 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets €3.75, MP3 calls €3.75.

      Turn: (€13) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets €8.50, MP3 calls €8.50.

      River: (€30) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets €30.95, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $30

      Villain is 31/6 AF 1.4 after 170hands.

      He probably always has me beat on river given his AF.

      Question is, is there probability that he can still turn some busted fds into a bluff(small sample and AF issue) so it would be better to b/f river like 1/3 pot or less maybe?
  • 6 replies
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      This is sickness.. tbh my call finger is be itching here because his line does not make a lot of sense :tongue:

      imo the hands that make most sense are mid pocket pairs (like 55-99, connectors like 56 and maybe slowplayed KK-AA.
      33-44 are gonna be in his range aswell but less likely imo.. no-one flops a FH :f_grin:

      I think I actualy prefer a c/c on this river over bet/fold because it's unlikely that he's gonna call another barrel imo given your really strong line.
      His potsized shove looks soooo much like a hand turned into a bluff... with the right timing tells and feel I'm gonna call this sometimes. As the standard play I think a fold is preferable.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      A is not really scared card that you should c/c or c/f
      I´d bet river for value 15$ and if he shoves I have decision to make. If you check then he would check back very often hands that you´re ahead like medium pp-s and would likely only bet there Ax hands or better.
      So c/f to potsize bet unless you see him potting river smt like 56 should be ok
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      A is not really scared card that you should c/c or c/f
      I´d bet river for value 15$ and if he shoves I have decision to make. If you check then he would check back very often hands that you´re ahead like medium pp-s and would likely only bet there Ax hands or better.
      So c/f to potsize bet unless you see him potting river smt like 56 should be ok
      I just wanted to add, that these kind of players are prone
      to calling their Ax hands down on these paired flops,
      like in this situation.
      In my expierence (by bluffing too much and also valuebetting)
      he will have those Ax hands there pretty often.

      We can also probably add some gutshots which made straight on the T,
      but I'm not sure.

      That would make a pretty huge range of hands that beat us:
      Small aces A2-A6, for example, like this flop.
      Biger aces, like AK-A7 are calling a lot, too,
      probably because of a showdown value or smthg.

      Now we just have to split hands in two groups:
      1. Hands that beat us; (Aces I mentioned before)
      2. Hands we beat. (pocket pairs)

      Q: What hand range would you give to Villain given this action?
      - I would give any Axs and A9o+ for this player.
      - Pairs he would calls. Not too much, I think. Like - TT-77 ?
      Also 33-55 crush us.
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Originally posted by Anger86


      I just wanted to add, that these kind of players are prone to calling their Ax hands down on these paired flops, like in this situation. In my expierence (by bluffing too much and also valuebetting) he will have those Ax hands there pretty often. We can also probably add some gutshots which made straight on the T, but I'm not sure. That would make a pretty huge range of hands that beat us: Small aces A2-A6, for example, like this flop. Biger aces, like AK-A7 are calling a lot, too, probably because of a showdown value or smthg.

      Now we just have to split hands in two groups:
      1. Hands that beat us; (Aces I mentioned before)
      2. Hands we beat. (pocket pairs)

      Q: What hand range would you give to Villain given this action?
      - I would give any Axs and A9o+ for this player.
      - Pairs he would calls. Not too much, I think. Like - TT-77 ?
      Also 33-55 crush us.
      this really ... I just have a feeling that not in a million years he is turning his hand into bluff enough to make the call +EV.

      But yes... agree with kaitz I shouldn`t give his mid pp free sd.
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      thank you guys for the insight, maybe I was overthinking this but calling does look spewy now vs a random guy.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      31/6 might sometimes call again turn with Ax since he now also have straight draw, but he may also easily fold, but if he calls then he doesn´t really pot river with Ax hand
      Also I believe he would call us with any pair if we bet river half pot or less and consider he would most likely would limp with pp-s rather than Ax hands I´d prefer going for value

      Q: What hand range would you give to Villain given this action?
      - he sometimes have there Ax hand, but more often some kind of pp, we beat 66-TT, although I think he would raise a lot of times also with TT.
      - also he may have there some suited connectors, like 56s, 57s, 54s, 67s.
      and sometimes he has there just two overcards with flushdraw, like JTs, K8s and so on.