[NL2-NL10] Mss NL10 fold set on Turn

    • JHTAN
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($7.12)
      BB ($9.84)
      UTG ($4)
      UTG+1 ($8.69)
      UTG+2 ($8.56)
      MP1 ($17.45)
      MP2 ($11.09)
      CO ($5.81)
      BTN ($7.75)

      Dealt to Hero 8:club: 8:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, MP2 calls $0.60

      FLOP ($1.90) T:diamond: 8:diamond: 2:spade:

      Hero bets $1.30, MP2 calls $1.30

      TURN ($4.50) T:diamond: 8:diamond: 2:spade: K:diamond:

      Hero checks, MP2 bets $5, Hero folds

      MP2 wins $4.20

      Villain stats,

      Uploaded with ImageShack.us


      I decided to 3bet villain because his high fold to 3bet stats.
      The hand ranges that beat me are KK and Flush.
      Do you fold it? How do you play this hand after the FLop?
      I feel very bad about the decision I made. :f_cry:

  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      You have a 6 sample of his fold to 3bet => variance => bad spot to 3bet with 88s or almost any low-mid pps.

      You will hit a set 12% of the time and probably spew it off when you dont hit your set the other 88% of the time => bad playability

      Also if you want him to fold, 3bet bigger preflop!

      So far the 3bet preflop part

      Postfop you bet for value, terrific! Then on the Turn you c/f :f_eek:
      What kind of flushdraw holding do you think he has? What do you think his overall range is when he calls you on the Flop?

      I am almost never folding this because one has to handread here, thats why I ask you these questions

      - Gerv
    • JHTAN
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Hey Gerv,

      Thank you for your reply. :)

      yeah, that was the worse decision I made in my poker career. :D
      It may due to psychology because I get 3 times suck out by flush draw in that day. X(

      I think the following is his reasonable calling range on the Flop range based on his preflop action.

      Board: T :diamond: 8 :diamond: 2 :spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.47%  20.47%   0.00% { 99+, A :diamond: K :diamond: , A :diamond: Q :diamond: }
      BU     79.53%  79.53%   0.00% { 8 :heart: 8 :club: }

      I will snap call next time if this situation happen again ;)
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      By the way if you bet bigger on the Flop, you can shove under potsized on the Turn

      His range is something like Toppair T and pockets yes

      Best regards,