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[NL2-NL10] JJ - NL10 - push all-in?

    • drachdudek
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656

      I will post my hand in sentence, i think it will be clear enough.

      I had JJ out position UTG1 raised, i reraised, the pot was arround 2$,my left stack was 0,65$.

      The flop was A 8 5 rainbow.

      UTG1 bet 1$....

      Should i call all-in (i had only 0,65$ stack left) or should i fold?
  • 7 replies
    • kingSammy
      Joined: 09.01.2008 Posts: 1
      yes should call because total in pot including the raise would be 3$ and you will only be risking 68 cents more to win 3$..i believe that an allin would be the best play
    • drachdudek
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      I did call, but i knew when he called that he was not bluffing and he had an A, so my EV was not good, i had some odds,but anway...maybe i will wait for Xyleres opinion, he is very good at statistics :)
    • frzl
      Joined: 25.04.2006 Posts: 9,876
      if your stack wasn´t bigger than normal and if he raised 3bb+ you should push all in preflop ro avoid this situations :)
    • Berliner1982
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Push preflop or fold.
    • TimothyVdp1
      Joined: 11.12.2007 Posts: 5,820
      To avoid situations like this, you should push instead of reraising preflop if you know you are going to be commited post flop, you get more fold equity and you don't have to deal with decisions like this ;)
    • xylere
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Push pre-flop, of course. There is no point in leaving 0.65$ behind, you will be commited anyway and won`t be able to generate much of the fold equity.

      But as played - call. If the pot was 2$ + 1$ bet, then your odds are

      2.65:0.65 ~ 4:1 -> 1/5 = 20% equity

      Technically, if your opponent shows you his cards and there is an ACE (like AK/AJ hands) then you have to fold, because your equity is only 7%.

      BUT ! If you add to his range only one hand - TT (that is quite possible), your equity rise to 21%.

      And since we never know our opponent cards, remote probability of beeing bluffed don`t allow us to fold, even if we are sure that he is not bluffing (assuming that we can not be sure 100%, unless we saw our opponents cards)

      To illustrate this:

      - if he holds AK/AJ (7% equity)
      EV = 0.93*(-0.65) + 0.07*(2.65) = - 0.6$ + 0.18$ = - 0.42

      BUT! if we assume that in 20% of the time he will semi-bluff (bet with TT) - we have 91% equity

      EV = 0.80*(-0.42) + 0.20*( 0.91*(2.65) + 0.9*(0.65) ) = - 0.33 + 0.37 = + 0.04

      From this experiment we can conclude that remote probability of beeing semi-bluffed (1 out of 5 times) makes clear - EV move + EV (close to zero EV, but still positive !)

      The question is: is there a possibility that in 1 out of 5 plays in this spot we will be semi-bluffed ? Of course there is and on this limit, I would say, it is even bigger then 20%) Some individums can easily do it with a hand like KQ, TT-88, etc. ))

      The bottom line is: you must call)
    • drachdudek
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Thanks for very nice explanation ( i like statistics:) as i have studied technical studies..)

      P.S. One hand just for laugh:) . I had QQ, UTG1 raised 4BB, i had 1,7$ stack, so i said what a hell i went all-in and guy on BB and UTG1 went also all in...:) The BB showed A4s and UTG - AJo...The flop was J 8 7 rainbow, i said ...vuaaaauu...nice...but in the end river was a "lucky" card for UTG :) ....i think i overcome bad beats at really do not pisses me off i just laugh and "mark-note" the players :D