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[NL20-NL50] [50/SH] QQ gameplan vs unknown (fish?)

    • hova
      Joined: 09.11.2006 Posts: 3,678
      UTG: $58.50
      Hero (MP): $50.75
      CO: $62.35
      BTN: $58.25
      SB: $108.10
      BB: $40.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q:diamond: Q:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($5.75) T:club: 8:diamond: 4:diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4, SB folds

      Turn: ($13.75) 9:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.50, CO calls $9.50

      River: ($32.75) 8:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $18, CO raises to $36, Hero folds

      Only read I have is this

      Knowing this I thought to have a thin but easy valuebet on the river when the 8 counterfeits T9 and makes some sets less likely, especially 88.

      Assumption 1: I don't think such a player will bluff in a 65BB pot on the river, when I give him the chance to. He will more often check back Tx and J9 9x kind of hands.
      Assumption 2: He will never turn JJ,AT,KT into a bluff when I bet the river.

      What I think he has:
      My flop equity vs this range 79%.
      My turn equity vs this range 75%.
      River is the same as turn except he'll fold all the underpairs without draws, all the 2nd/3rd pairs and all overcards without oesd+. I discounted some non-nutflushes in combinations.
      My river equity vs this range 65%.
      The calling/shoving range I give him is this
      against which i have 53% equity.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Don´t think he is bluffing that often, but at the same time can´t really give that player too much credit, so getting these odds I´d b/c river.
      He shouldn´t have there too many 8x hands and I think he would a lot of times raise turn with his flush/straight and he may decide to min-raise for value smt like T9
      So calling overpair 18$ into 86$ pot can´t really be that and move even if you think it is a little -ev move, at least you get information if he was slowplaying on the turn or what hands he is going to call on the flop and turn