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[NL2-NL10] AQ with flush draw

    • Watto77
      Joined: 17.12.2007 Posts: 206
      I am playing SSS and my stack was $5

      Hit top pair and have 8 outs for the flush and 2 A's (not really looking at trips though). Is it ok to push here with this hand and why?

      I am asking why to somewhat fundamental questions just to pick peoples brains

      Where can I get some practical information on equity, particularly fold equity. Should i be having a go on Equilator?

      Full Tilt Poker
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
      8 players

      Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with A Q
      UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

      Flop: A 3 8 ($3.35, 3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero is all-in $4, Button raises to $8, UTG+1 folds.
      Uncalled bets: $4 returned to Button.

      Turn: 2 ($11.35, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $11.35)

      River: Q ($11.35, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $11.35)

      Final pot: $11.35
  • 4 replies
    • helemaalnicks
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      wp, because you had a made hand again.
    • Watto77
      Joined: 17.12.2007 Posts: 206
      Thanks nicks
    • Watto77
      Joined: 17.12.2007 Posts: 206
      Might be starting to get the hang of this :D
    • xylere
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      download equilator or pokerstove - must have software for any poker player.

      You can not estimate your fold equity precisely, because it is somewhat abstract. The thing you want to know about FE is: more is better)

      simple example:

      you are in HU situation with 15BB stack and pot is 10BB. You are first to act.

      - our estimated equity against opponent's range is 30%
      - our pot odds (for putting money in) are 1.6:1 or 38%

      3 scenarios:

      1) no fold equity

      EV = 0.3*25BB + 0.7*(-15BB) = - 3BB

      2) cbet/call (with fold equity)
      - we assume that opponent will fold 40% of the time to our 8BB cbet, in 60% of the time he will push and we call.

      EV = 0.4*(10BB) + 0.6*( 0.3*(25BB) - 0.7*(15BB) ) = 4BB - 1.8BB = + 2.2BB

      3) push (a lot of fold equity)
      - we assume that opponent will fold 60% of the time to our push and call 40% of the time

      EV = 0.6*(10BB) + 0.4*( 0.3*(25BB) - 0.7*(15BB) ) = 6BB - 1.2BB = + 4.8BB

      conclusion is obvious: our EV increases when our FE increases) Therefore, we are always interested in having higer FE (except spots where we have nuts or a very strong hand, in our example we are not interested in increasingthe fold equity when our equity is approx. more then 80%)

      In your hand it is obvious all in, because you have very strong hand + second best Flush draw + fold equity. And because your stack is so small (odss are high) it will be + EV move long term.