[NL2-NL10] QQ nl10 bad fold

    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.15)
      BB ($10.44)
      Hero ($11.44)
      UTG+1 ($4.50)
      CO ($11.44)
      BTN ($19.84)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: Q:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.35, fold, CO calls $0.35, fold, fold, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.10) T:heart: 2:club: T:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, CO calls $0.60, BB calls $0.60

      TURN ($2.90) T:heart: 2:club: T:diamond: 9:spade:

      BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      RIVER ($2.90) T:heart: 2:club: T:diamond: 9:spade: 8:club:

      BB bets $1.45, Hero folds, CO folds

      BB wins $2.72


      CO - 19/11/3.6 616HANDS
      bb; 18/9/1,7 378HANS WTSD 33

      F: I C-BET AND HOPE get calls pp sometimes A-high
      T: i don't see many value if i beat he easy fold PP, OC hands so i check to potcontrol and c/c here - when they checkbac i put of course PP
      R: str8 complete and he donks and i am thoug spot what he can bet here small for value str9, FH and maybe JJ

      so equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QdQs }
      Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 8 0.00 { JJ, 99-88, QJs }

      easy call.
  • 7 replies
    • Indahaus
      Indahaus
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2010 Posts: 85
      He can bet any ten I think. Btw I would probably like insta call this and think later :f_biggrin:
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello deivid2,

      Don't really see any reason not to bet the turn(there are still a lot of PPs which may Call us). I would basically just bet the turn for value. But as played definitely Call it on river while you played it that passively.

      And of course I would definitely put him even on worse hands not just as you did, backdoor straight and FH, which ain't that likely. Rather Bet/Fold the turn than play this way.

      Best regards.
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      You think they calls with PP when i bet turn? what can i rep? only OP they are easy fold with 88-22, and they are easy c/c or c/r with Tx or FH.

      And two what sense is bad turn if i make value river anyway this hand? i don;t get 3streets value this hand but if i bet turn they can say - eehh he bets he can bets on the river so i fold my PP, but river he can say ok i get good potodds i call and see what he have.

      and tree they don't loook a calingstation player rather weaktight.

      River: do you think 19/11/1.7 he bet here PP or bluff vs two opponent?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You think they calls with PP when i bet turn? what can i rep? only OP they are easy fold with 88-22, and they are easy c/c or c/r with Tx or FH.

      Huh? Be real. You even did mention one guys WTS. He has it 33, then I am 99% sure that he would Call there. The 1% is that he accidentally presses fold. :D

      River: do you think 19/11/1.7 he bet here PP or bluff vs two opponent?

      Then to avoid that do bet the turn. :) And don't induce opponents to bluff while showing weakness with Checking behind the turn.

      And two what sense is bad turn if i make value river anyway this hand? i don;t get 3streets value this hand but if i bet turn they can say - eehh he bets he can bets on the river so i fold my PP, but river he can say ok i get good potodds i call and see what he have.

      Didn't really understand perfectly your sentence. But who did say that we want 3 streets value? And what do you expect them to do on river then? If you Check behind the turn, you really think they would Check/Call there while they could as well just bet themselves the pair and hope to get maybe called by some weaker pair or A high even.
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      i don't sure 230hand is good sample for WTS and he Vpip is 19 so he don't put a lot money preflop so he can easly strong range and c/c often and this borads i c-bet turn when i bluff and want he fold his PP and paired flop barrel turn is super effective my experience.

      Then to avoid that do bet the turn. smile And don't induce opponents to bluff while showing weakness with Checking behind the turn

      induce bluff isn't my plan. I checkbehind to get more value river, becouse i thinks they calls me wider range if i check turn and bet river.

      If you Check behind the turn, you really think they would Check/Call there while they could as well just bet themselves the pair and hope to get maybe called by some weaker pair or A high even.

      You reallly thinks 19/11 bet here for thin value with A-high or 77-22?? my experience - no way :)
    • deivid2
      deivid2
      Global
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 6,366
      i show you how i see this hand:

      PRE: equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 19.265% 18.98% 00.28% 221973587 3282068.83 { JJ-22, AQs-A9s, A5s-A4s, A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      Hand 1: 59.863% 59.70% 00.16% 698026254 1922429.33 { QQ }
      Hand 2: 20.872% 20.52% 00.35% 239965136 4083686.83 { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AQo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      F: after i c-bet and they calls

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 28.438% 27.72% 00.72% 16571613 427834.50 { JJ-22, AQs-ATs, A2s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      Hand 1: 43.132% 43.13% 00.00% 25782921 0.00 { QQ }
      Hand 2: 28.430% 27.71% 00.72% 16566591 427834.50 { JJ-22, AQs-A9s, A2s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, AQo-ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

      T: when i check chance nothing but if i beat i think they calls this:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 50.443% 47.67% 02.78% 257532 15006.00 { JJ-88, 22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      Hand 1: 12.413% 12.41% 00.00% 67068 0.00 { QQ }
      Hand 2: 37.144% 34.37% 02.78% 185676 15006.00 { JJ-77, 22, ATs-A9s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }



      and River when i check back turn:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 59.820% 59.58% 00.24% 17508 72.00 { JJ-66, 22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      Hand 1: 24.500% 24.50% 00.00% 7200 0.00 { QQ }
      Hand 2: 15.680% 15.43% 00.24% 4536 72.00 { TT-33, A9s, A5s-A4s, A2s, KTs, AQo-AJo, KJo-KTo, QJo }

      even if i give him 77-66 this lead i don't get good odds call becouse BTN is behind me and he is the pot he usually don't have Tx but sometimes he can have.

      what do you thinks and if you see diferent this situation, show me i am very interesting.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      It's not something like NL100 where people really think that much. It's just NL10, so I am pretty sure that they would still be able to continue there with a lot worse PPs and the 9 wouldn't even scare them.

      CO - 19/11/3.6 616HANDS
      bb; 18/9/1,7 378HANS WTSD 33

      You said 378 hands -> WTSD 33 and even if it was 230 33 is still way too much which I am taking a player as a big station. Or either those 19/11 or 18/9 stats aren't good at all. Just seems to be pretty horrible players who don't know much about poker and likely playing with negative profit.

      Therefore I have an easy bet on turn for value from worse PPs and which I would definitely as well do on such a dry board.

      And as you said yourself:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 28.438% 27.72% 00.72% 16571613 427834.50 { JJ-22, AQs-ATs, A2s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }
      Hand 1: 43.132% 43.13% 00.00% 25782921 0.00 { QQ }
      Hand 2: 28.430% 27.71% 00.72% 16566591 427834.50 { JJ-22, AQs-A9s, A2s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, AQo-ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

      Against that kind of range we have an easy value-bet. And if they don't want to Call then let it be. But when I am Checking behind I am like never folding it on river to such bet while we getting that great odds. While he could easily be even turning some kind of smaller PP into bluff or whatsoever or maybe even sees value in it. Then as I understand you would as well fold AA here? :D What would even continue then? TT/22/99/88 only?

      And on river we need like 25% equity to make it profitable. And your ranges ain't that correct either. And therefore we can easily get the 25% here, plus if we even had some bluffs into his range then it's even easier.

      I wouldn't like ever count on CO a very strong range while he Checked behind. He would definitely bet it on turn with some kind of stronger hand. It's more often just some kind of crap like smaller PPs.

      Board: T:heart: 2:club: T:diamond:  9:spade:  8:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    35.00%  35.00%   0.00% { QQ }
      CO      0.00%   0.00%   0.00% { 77-33 }
      BB     65.00%  65.00%   0.00% { JJ-55, 22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo }