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[NL20-NL50] [SH] 3B pot 3 way IP bluff Flop shove

    • Dublimax
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($50) VP:19/PR:17/SQZ in blinds:9% read:very SQZ in BB with AK, pretty straight forward player
      BB ($42.20)
      UTG ($68.25)
      UTG+1 ($50) From EP: VP:18/PFR:18/WTSD:31/AF:1.6,1.1,1
      Hero ($75.88)
      BTN ($72.29)

      Dealt to Hero 4:spade: 5:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, SB raises to $8, fold, UTG calls $6.50, fold, Hero calls $6.50

      FLOP ($26) 5:heart: 8:diamond: 6:diamond:

      SB checks, UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $67.88 (AI), SB folds, UTG ??

      SB sqzed very quickly here so from my read I think he is quite strong.

      Pre: Can I can after the sqz and UTG call with 45s IP?

      Post: From my read SB Checks so I think he is giving up with AK probably. UTG bets so I think that he probably has 88-QQ or maybe overcards where he felt SB was weak.

      I think that by shoving flop I should make all UTG hands fold except for sets (well only 88 because I doubt he his calling SB sqz with less than 88 if he does) because my range is quite wide since I called the sqz with UTG having called already.

      The bluff has to work only 41% to be profitable. Not counting that I have few outs if I get called.
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      When utg bets 20$ into 26$ pot I really doubt he is b/f his TT/99 against your shove, since flop is very drawy and you can shove a lot of draws.
      So I really don´t like it, pf call is fine, but fold on the flop. You´re generally not ahead and no point getting all-in for 140bb with pair of 5s and idiot end straight draw