• Bronze
Joined: 21.11.2007
Hi. Lets say, that i fliped a coin and there droped a tail. Now i have a 75% probability, that now will drop a head (because 0.5^2=0.25), right? So if i will bet 1\$ on head, if there droped tail before, and vice versa, i should win in 75% 1\$ and lost 1\$ in 25% of all bets. I can make this also on roulette, i tried it with funnymoney, but it didnt work much well. I expected that, but i dont understand, where is the trouble? Discuss.

PS: sorry for my horrible english
• 3 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 03.10.2007
that's not how statistics works.

if the coin goes tails, tails, tails there is still exactly 50% chance of tails and 50% chance of heads. future probability has nothing at all to do with past results.
• Bronze
Joined: 02.12.2007
It's 50/50 all the time. If your concept worked, anyone could win easily.

Good luck at the tables!
-thunderbird56-
• Bronze
Joined: 21.09.2007
the universe doesn't remember stuff, so you start with a clean 50/50 every time. Of course a coin could land on its side, or in someones mouth, which would make it less then 50% for both heads and tail, but 50% is a good estimation .