Can you ever estimate how well you are playing?

    • jebozid
      jebozid
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2010 Posts: 31
      So, I read that you need a huge number of playing hands for your stats to be valid - around 50k. Let's say I play NL2 BSS. BI = $2 and BR = $50. I want to get to NL5 and for that I need to reach $125 (25 BI). The difference is $75, which is 3750 big blinds. If I have a win rate of 10bb/100 I will reach NL5 in 37,5k hands and therefore never had hit that 50k mark for stats. Similar thing would happen if I go up the stakes to NL10, but then I'd have even less of a sample - only 25k hands. I'm currently on 2k hands and was wondering about all this. Is maybe 10bb/100 too optimistic to sustain in the long run? Would my win rate be more or less the same until NL100? Any and all thoughts and critiques of my thought process are welcome.
  • 1 reply
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      It's not quite that straight forward.. Firstly, your winrate won't be constant over x number of hands... You will have periods of run good and run bad so your results from one week to the next will vary quite a lot. 10bb/100 is a bit ambitious.. Achievable at the micros but you'd be a bit of a legend if you manage it through nl25 and beyond.

      Bottom line is that if your graph keeps going up as you progress through the limits you are doing something right! Just keep learning and analysing your game and all will be well.