[NL2-NL10] Nl2 nut fd

    • Cooleyman
      Cooleyman
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2011 Posts: 144
      Was my line correct on the flop?

      I figure around 11 outs for the nut fd or str to the ace.

      Villain was 13/8/2.3 over 64 hands, so I guess his range to be maybe TT+, AT+ but probably not KK+ or he would have 3bet pre-flop.

      Not sure really how to estimate his range, so would appreciate your advice with that.

      Cheers,
      Cooleyman

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):
      $2.00
      MP3:
      $2.00
      CO:
      $2.00
      BU:
      $1.43
      SB:
      $1.42
      BB:
      $1.60
      UTG2:
      $1.54
      MP1:
      $2.22


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, A.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, MP3 calls $0.08, 4 folds, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.19) T, 8, Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.10, MP3 raises to $1.92(All-In), Hero calls $1.82.

      Turn: ($4.03) 8 (2 players)


      River: ($4.03) 7 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $4.03.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Cooleyman,

      We need like 47% equity there and against that range:

      Board: T:spade: 8:spade: Q:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    50.95%  48.92%   2.03% { AsJs }
      MP3    49.05%  47.02%   2.03% { QQ, TT, 88, KQs, QTs+, J9s, KQo, QTo+, J9o }

      And therefore it's kinda close, although I wouldn't say like it's a big mistake to make the Call here, on such a board and with such a draw you should be happy to go broke. If you want to avoid variance then you could as well just fold the hand.

      Best regards.
    • Cooleyman
      Cooleyman
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2011 Posts: 144
      Thanks Veriz,

      I am not familiar with the equity tool. At the risk of asking a dumb, I assume the 47% we need is based on the villain's 47.02% win equity?

      Regards,
      Cooleyman
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Cooleyman
      Thanks Veriz,

      I am not familiar with the equity tool. At the risk of asking a dumb, I assume the 47% we need is based on the villain's 47.02% win equity?

      Regards,
      Cooleyman
      Equity is calculated by diving the total pot for us to Call which means ->
      Total pot -> 4,03 and to Call 1,82 -> 1,82/4,03 = ~45,16% so it's even less. :D