Are cbets profitable most of the time?

    • hoonji126
      hoonji126
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 5
      Hi, I'm a beginner poker player who was reviewing pot odds concepts today and I found something curious about cbets

      Betting 2/3 of a pot heads up as a cbet if profitable if the opponent folds at least 40% of the time, right?

      calculating the odds:

      pot odds: 3:2 -> 1.5:1
      odds against you: 60:40 -> 1.5:1

      And in this case, cbet is +EV, I guess

      Obviously, your equity increases further if the opponent has a greater chance to fold, which will lower the odds against you.

      However, what if we look at raising EV from the other direction, i.e. by raising the pot odds instead of expecting the opponent to fold more?

      Let's say the opponent is very loose caller and will call 90% of your cbets. This gives you odds of 9:1 against, right?

      A 2/3 pot sized bet will only give you 1.5:1 pot odds, which is not enough to make the cbet. But if you only cbet 1/9 of the pot, wouldn't that give you the pot odds necessary (9:1) to make the cbet?

      To me, this lead to the conclusion that a minimum bet into a large enough pot is profitable against players who do not fold easily.

      Can anyone correct me if my logic is erroneous?

      Thanks!
  • 10 replies
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
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      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Originally posted by hoonji126
      Let's say the opponent is very loose caller and will call 90% of your cbets. This gives you odds of 9:1 against, right?

      A 2/3 pot sized bet will only give you 1.5:1 pot odds, which is not enough to make the cbet. But if you only cbet 1/9 of the pot, wouldn't that give you the pot odds necessary (9:1) to make the cbet?
      If opponent is calling 90% of 2/3 pot sized bets, then how can you expect him to fold those 10% when you bet only 1/9th of the pot? :)
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
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      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by Bigniux
      Originally posted by hoonji126
      Let's say the opponent is very loose caller and will call 90% of your cbets. This gives you odds of 9:1 against, right?

      A 2/3 pot sized bet will only give you 1.5:1 pot odds, which is not enough to make the cbet. But if you only cbet 1/9 of the pot, wouldn't that give you the pot odds necessary (9:1) to make the cbet?
      If opponent is calling 90% of 2/3 pot sized bets, then how can you expect him to fold those 10% when you bet only 1/9th of the pot? :)
      Agree. :) If opponent is not folding to c-bets, answer is: DON'T c-bet with air. Only c-bet when you hit the flop. ;)
    • rhezz
      rhezz
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      Joined: 01.02.2010 Posts: 40
      Against people who never fold, the best strategy is actually to avoid cbeting and cbet higher than usual when you flop something.

      If you know that your opponent will always call a cbet - why minbetting and giving him the chances of drawing something? by minbetting you are giving him in most cases the correct pot/odds to call.

      In the opposite hand, given that you know that he'll call you down, increase your bet sizes so you can get max value from him.
    • hoonji126
      hoonji126
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 5
      Aha!

      I was actually kind of asking myself this while I was writing the post, but thanks so much for confirming this for me :D
    • scscpoker
      scscpoker
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      Joined: 29.06.2010 Posts: 121
      Most times you wont be able to make opponent fold by 1/9 pot bet, but ofc, if u get some reads like he will FOR SURE fold to that.. less than minbet? :/ then it could be mathematically profitable, but u probably wont get that situation.

      Also, if he folds 1/9 and u bet 1/9 pot, then u arent making profit - that will be break-even spot (with chance that he will call minbets even easier).
    • SiXAT
      SiXAT
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      Joined: 28.09.2008 Posts: 263
      Taking a pot with cbet is many times is like one time its your turn next time its his turn imo.
      That is if you play HU in postion agiant an opponent the board is Axx and you have tight image, he will fold more often if you are in the samee situation agaisnt this player second time, so the second time you check more often.

      Observe your opponet: if he just lost a pot, does he try to tighten up and take control of his game(in this scenario you can cbet bluff more often), or does he start tilting?

      Try to guess his range and how often he fits the flop.
      Dont forget your opponet puts you on hands too, so if for example the flop is 234 and you are a tight player represnting something is harder and oftentimes if the opponent is tricky he might make a move on you.

      Showing your opponts that you play passively hands to showdown when you dont hit, also imroves the fold equity.
      Giving away one pot, then taking the other: "if you folded last time, and now you bet means you must have it", thats why balance is important.

      Anyway on the micros there are so many calling stations, that not cbet bluffing is often the best option( of course they can be bluffed, and with profit, but they all need the right spot, and its too much mind fuck, easier just to play nitty)

      Hope this wil help you=)
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      I play lots of cbets lately and I've realized interesting thing.

      Ppl will check-raise you more often or check call you when you put 70% cbet and fold more often when you bet 50%..

      They must have been thinking that if you have a good hand you tend to bet less in order to get more value of the hand and that if you bet more you want them to fold. Which I initialy wanted to do.

      Now I am thinking the other way. Bet 70% my better hands and 50% the worse? What do you think guys? :f_biggrin:

      **I'll figure out this one in time anyway** :P
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Originally posted by mattisks
      I play lots of cbets lately and I've realized interesting thing.

      Ppl will check-raise you more often or check call you when you put 70% cbet and fold more often when you bet 50%..

      They must have been thinking that if you have a good hand you tend to bet less in order to get more value of the hand and that if you bet more you want them to fold. Which I initialy wanted to do.

      Now I am thinking the other way. Bet 70% my better hands and 50% the worse? What do you think guys? :f_biggrin:

      **I'll figure out this one in time anyway** :P
      I think there is some truth in this!! I tend to cbet 50% of pot with a dry board and 3/4 pot with a draw heavy board!
      Also I think Cbetting in any game depends on the type of opponent too, if they have called your raise or your 3 bet and they play a tight game then chances are they know as well as you do with a crappy flop that you have missed!!!! lol :P
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      that's true mate.

      I tend to be aggressive no matter what. Coz once I step back for this or another reason all my aggression will fall apart.

      I found myself lately cbeting even killers like (AA) flop AAx.. There is not much chance in the game I play that anyone will try to bluff me or call me on later streets :( Bloody nits. I rather try to represent cbet as it is.. For that matter I get paid when they take stand. And sometimes those freaks take stand with bottom pair and an ace :D

      damm fishes :s_evil:
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by hoonji126
      Hi, I'm a beginner poker player who was reviewing pot odds concepts today and I found something curious about cbets

      Betting 2/3 of a pot heads up as a cbet if profitable if the opponent folds at least 40% of the time, right?
      Those are the odds on a steal. You make an immediate profit if you get at least 40% folds. However, when you make a continuation bet, you are often not stealing, and checking is often not the same thing as giving up. If you have equity when called, either because you might get called by worse or you might draw out, then you might not need as many folds to bet. However, if checking means you can find a profitable delayed cbet or you might hit a draw or you might be able to call a bet later, then you might not want to make a continuation bet that would show an immediate profit. You can see more information in my video "Immediate Profit."

      If you are betting 50% of the pot on dry flops and are rarely check-raised, but you are betting 70% of the pot on coordinated flops and are check-raised often, this does not mean your opponents care about the size of your continuation bet. They might, but they might be check-raising a lot of their draws, and not slow-playing good made hands when the board is coordinated. If you had a set of tens on a flop of T62r, you might slow-play, but you would want to get the money in faster on a flop of T96 with a flush draw possible. There are many more ways a hand can get a piece of the T96 flop without a pair, so it is not as good of a flop to cbet AK unimproved.