[NL20-NL50] set vs fish on wet board

    • vmarqui
      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7.
      MP3 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, BB folds, MP3 calls $1.50.

      Flop: ($4.5) 3, Q, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, MP3 calls $3.00.

      Turn: ($10.5) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, MP3 calls $6.00.

      River: ($22.5) 7 (2 players)
      Hero ???

      Do you think it's better to bet/call than to bet/fold?
      Considering it's a 45 11 fish with an agg of 0.9
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      he should not shove river with worse hands than flushes so you should likely b/f consider his af. Problem is that I´d bet 18$ and if he shoves 18$ more I get really good odds+ I´d expect him to raise his flush on the turn, so I might also consider b/c river
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello vmarqui,

      Preflop: I'd actually would raise it even bigger being OOP, ~$2,50-3.
      Postflop: And of course on river I'd still Bet/Fold it like $14. He ain't gonna raise there with worse like ever. Don't really expect him to do that with worse than flush and I disagree that he would raise flush on turn. Why should he? While he can easily slowplay it and maybe even get your whole stack on river.

      Best regards.