After playing 50.000 hands on Full Tilt (30k on NL2 and 20k on NL5 rush) I started to recognize few concrete situations which are happening more (or less) often than they should.

First interesting thing I focused on was set mining. There is theoretical

**probability of 11.76%** that you should hit the flop. That should make one set per 7.5 misses in the longterm. But not on FTP.

According to this table I did see the flop with 1964 pocket pairs and only in 163 cases the third card hit the flop.

That makes

**probability of 8.3% after almost 2000 attempts**. That is odd. You might say it's variance / bad luck / etc.., but it's almost 2000 sample,

**the deviation should not be that high**:

There's thing called Binominal distribution (

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution) which allowed me to count probability of the low percentage occurence. With 1964 tries the equation would be really really large so I used Java's Big numbers math library (which is btw really big helper). In short: the chances of 8.3% or less after 1964 tries are:

**0.000037%**.

*Which is something like flipping a coin 25 times and hitting only 1 head and 24 tails.*
Few more possible FTP abnormalities are in my mind right now and I'll share them when I have some data to build on.

My opinion:

I don't know whether the variance is bended only here or also on the higher limits, I don't even know whether it's bended to all the players on these limits. But it's obvious that the lower limits (or maybe only some people there) are the biggest cash cow (most depositing candidates) for the site. It's in their interest to invoke the biggest gambling emotions they could. It works just like the gambling gaming machines in bars. And finally, let's be honest - if you were the site owner, wouldn't you want to maximize your profit, by not really obvious way, too?

To paraphrase Shakespeare, something is rotten on the site of Full Tilt.