[NL20-NL50] NL 25 sh - rush - KQ oesd vs TAG

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $12.75
      SB: $25.10
      BB: $25.00
      UTG: $22.41
      Hero (MP): $30.13
      CO: $11.48

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Q:club: K:diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.75) T:diamond: J:diamond: 3:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $4, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $3

      Turn: ($9.75) Q:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $6.80, Hero looks how blue the sky is today and is awakened by the beeeep

      By this equity analysis my flop call is ok :

      Board: J:diamond: T:diamond: 3:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    40.37%  40.36%   0.01% { KdQc }
      MP3    59.63%  59.61%   0.01% { JJ-TT, 33, AJs, JTs, 98s, AJo, AdKd, AdQd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }

      And I gave him all the sets which I dont think it's really the case as I expect him to 3 bet some time JJ/TT and fold sometimes 33

      On the turn the Q puts me ahead of his draws and AJ.

      I am thinking about what the best play is here:
      - if I think he will continue barreling his flush draws I should raise allin to get max value from those hands.
      - If I think he is shutting down with his flush draws on the turn and is inclined to c/c them his range is shifting towards sets/2pair against which I am not dong too good but still have ~ 22% equity so I guess I should fold because my draw is so face up and I can't expect to get paid when I hit ?

      HE is a 23/16 a little passive player with a high WTSD but also on small sample of only 60 hands ( which are equal to 0 at rush I guess )
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      His c/r looks a lot for value, which means I would expect him to have most of the times either JT or 33. he may sometimes have there flushdraws, but that shouldn´t be too big part of his range
      Since we´re sometimes ahead, sometimes get our free showdown or improve on the river I would prefer calling turn and folding to river shove. players are generally quite passive, so you´re mostly against made hand rather than bluff or draw that you should shove turn
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      One think I'd like to mention out is that I'd do a bigger CBet here like at least $1,30+. Otherwise I'd as well Call the turn.

      Best regards.