How to know if a limit is beaten?

      Joined: 06.08.2010 Posts: 301
      Hey guys,

      I started playing in november 2010 last year with the 50$ on Partypoker. Was playing 10man 3$ SnG speed. Got my BR up to 110$ and I got bored of poker so I started playing cash games above my bankroll and 6$ SnGs. My BR quickly dropped to about 20$. I then quit playing. I restarted begining of april I have been posting hands in hand review section and checking some of my hands with ICM trainer. Things are going fairly well and I wanted to know after how many hands can I be considered a winning player or after how many hands can I know if im beating/crushing/breakeven at my limit? Anyways here is my graph since I restarted playing a month ago..

      Let me know what you guys think :)
  • 3 replies
    • Navrark
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Just play until you have enough buy-ins to play on a higher stake level. If you are good it shouldn't take long multitabling.

      If you don't multiitable then set a goal and reach it. Maybe 1/5 of what you would need to earn to reach the next stake level, and then manually add in the money you need to get your bankroll to where it needs to be.
    • Gavron23
      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 2,863
      You should have at least 1000 tourneys completed on a certain level to get a close approximation to your true result.160 is too small of a sample size.
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      There isn't a set number of tournaments at which your results suddenly become meaningful. As you play more tournaments, the luck in your win rate slowly diminishes. One way to look at this is to compute a 95% confidence interval. Let us assume that you don't tilt and the games are constant. After n 9-player STTs, a rough 95% confidence interval for your true win rate is your observed win rate +- 310%/squareroot(n). After 160 tournaments, that would be about your observed win rate +- 25%.

      It's nice that you are ahead slightly, but you don't yet have strong statistical evidence that you are beating the games. Also, if you quit for a few months, you can't assume that you are playing as well as before and that the games have not changed.