[NL2-NL10] NL50 FR - QQ, folding overpair

    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50BB (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

      MP3 ($10.00)
      CO ($15.00)
      Button ($18.75)
      SB ($49.50) (VPIP:38.92/PFR:4.43/AF:1.39/Hands:203)
      BB ($50.00) (Hero)
      UTG+1 ($58.98)
      UTG+2 ($61.15)
      MP1 ($58.30)
      MP2 ($58.45)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:club: , Q:heart:
      5 folds, CO raises to $1, Button calls $1.00, SB raises to $4.25, Hero calls $3.75, 1 folds, Button calls $3.25,

      Flop: T:heart: , 5:diamond: , 7:diamond: ( $13.75 )
      SB bets $15.50, 2 folds

      Final Pot: $28.60

      PF I thought about reraising, but given that his PFR is not too big and reraising would make the pot too big, I decided to just call and reevaluate on the flop.

      On the flop, since his AF is not too big either, I believe I'm behind. And I can't raise to find out since I'd be commiting myself by raising.

      Did I play it too scared? Or was it right?
  • 10 replies
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Looking at his stats, someone this passive who almost never raises doesn't do it under these circumstances without at least AK, and almost certainly KK or AA. I would fold preflop here. You can't call this raise for set value, so there is no point in playing it IMO.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      I think IP, the call preflop is fine - I'd assume he will almost never c-bet OOP against 2 opponents such a flop without an overpair and thus fold.
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      I think so too... He is most probably on KK+ so the pf call is ok because your implied odds are very good against this range.
      Flop didn´t hit so fold.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      SB is loose and passive, with a tight raising range. He makes this play OOP. We don't have even 15x the amount we have to call, let alone 20. Why do we get good implieds here?
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I'm getting almost 14-to-1 implied odds here, and since he's passive, I believe that OOP, if he has overpair he won't c-bet too often. And to make things even better, BTN called, that means that a guy this passive is hardly ever c-betting his AK unimproved OOP against 2 opponents.
      So, I can probably take down the pot if he has AK. And in this case it would've been wrong to fold PF.
      So, IMO I'm not exactly calling for setvalue here, but I got position on him and can probably take it down on the flop if he's got AK.
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      SB is loose and passive, with a tight raising range. He makes this play OOP. We don't have even 15x the amount we have to call, let alone 20. Why do we get good implieds here?
      Equilator gives QQ against AK, KK+, 39.8% equity. That´s roughly 1.5:1.
      Pot odds are 2.66:1
      If you hit , you probably stack him out
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Equity wise, I can see that it is a clear call. The other thing to consider, though, is his WTS. This guy is really passive. Unless he has high WTS, you won't stack him when you hit. He'll fold unimproved, and probably be very cautious if you call or raise the flop. Also consider, the flop comes AQx, KQx, or worse, AKQ, and he cbets. What then?
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      Equity wise, I can see that it is a clear call. The other thing to consider, though, is his WTS. This guy is really passive. Unless he has high WTS, you won't stack him when you hit. He'll fold unimproved, and probably be very cautious if you call or raise the flop. Also consider, the flop comes AQx, KQx, or worse, AKQ, and he cbets. What then?
      Unfortunately we don´t have the WTS. As far as his VPIP and AF go, he is not all that passive.
      Of course you are in trouble if those flops hit, but ...so be it. I still think it is worth a call pf :)
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Ok then, here it is, his WTS is 35.29

      And well, if he does hit a higher set, I'm going broke. :D
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Well, with that WTS, I'd say you will get him for sure. The other thing is, when you calculated your equity, you included money from the third player, but gave him no share of the equity. You split it 50/50 between you and the raiser.