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[NL2-NL10] NL50 SH , Blindbattle (-EV or +EV?)

    • wallace07
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 572
      I've got a discussion with a friend of mine about the following hand, he says that my play is too risky/loose play and -EV in this situation. I consider him as (in my point of view) a too tight and straightforward shorthanded player, so this example splits our opinions massively ;)
      I think it's +EV (with variance though) and I would definitely do it again in the same situation. I'll give a humble explanation of my thoughts below.

      Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

      CO ($118.64)
      Button ($49.25)
      SB ($28.25)
      BB ($50.00) (Hero)
      MP2 ($111.30)
      MP3 ($92.80)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:club: , K:club:
      4 folds, SB raises to 1.0, Hero raises to 3.0, SB raises All-In $28, Hero calls $24.75,

      Flop: 8:club: , K:spade: , 3:spade: ( $56.5 )

      Turn: 3:diamond: ( $56.5 )

      River: 6:diamond: ( $56.5 )

      Final Pot: $53.70


      SB has 7:diamond: , 2:diamond:
      Hero has A:club: , K:club:
      Outcome: Hero wins $53.70

      I want to ask you about your opinion under the following two conditions:
      a) Villain (ViP: 50%/PfR: 25%)
      b) Villain (ViP: unknwon PfR: unknown)

      my thoughts:

      I actually played vs type a) and I give him a loose handrange for his stealing attempt. He will steal with Ax,Kx,Qx,JT,pp,sc maybe even looser or with any two just out of fun (he is a fish who sometimes likes to make risky moves, especially at BU,CO or blinds)
      However, after his all-in I put him on AT+,KQ,KJ,QJ,pp or maybe even any two as a bluff since I still think he is a fish due his loose stats. So, without calculating the proper odds, I would say it's +EV.

      I give this villain a tighter range since I don't know him and he could be the tightest rock on earth.
      However in my experience, blind battles are often very loose at NL50 and I don't think he would push his whole stack so early with a 3-bet whilst holding a monster preflop hand.
      He would rather try to extract more money of me instead of scaring me away, that's why I expect a normal 4-bet with a killer hand like AA or KK which he wants to trap me into a call (-> pot committed) or crying push.
      --> His big all-in bet looks rather like a "I don't want to see a flop" bluff bet with AK,AQ,AJ,KQ or QQ-22.
      So with this hand range it's maybe not a mathematical +EV, but here as well I expect also a any two once in a while which makes it for me +EV.

      So my inner poker sense will surely trigger the +EV(f**k the variance)-all-in button.

      Note: I won't call this all-in when we both would be deep stacked (100BB+).

      And now the third and most important question:
      c) Am I wrong?
  • 2 replies
    • aciddrop
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      My opinion.

      a) With these stats, provided the AF is also 2 or higher, definitely +EV to call this. You will have the best hand most often, which even then won't mean you win, but will be +EV.

      b) Against unknown, let it go. All in is a strange move, could mean anything. I played a standard raise with KK the other day at NL25, and an unknown playing his second hand at the table pushed. I though for a bit and called, and he showed AA. This move might be effective under exactly these circumstances, push when there is no logic to do so and a good hand is tempted to call.
    • Thorsten77
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      I agree with aciddrop.