All In Ev

    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      hi,

      my friend tried to explain to me last time but I still didn't understand it. He rather made it complicated for me. Ok here is the question.

      I have -800 BB difference between All in EV and my winnings.

      Is it bad sign or good sign?

      If my All in EV is smaller than my expected winnings is it that I am doing something wrong or that I am extremely unlucky or lucky?

      Please focus on the answer. I am looking for simple one. I am really a newbie in PT stuff.

      Thx for explanation in advance :f_biggrin:
  • 16 replies
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      I cant believe you are asking this question!!! I was just about to post about my ev line on hem!!! lol
      for the last 700 hands it has moved above my winnings line, I think it means that although I have been getting sucked out, because i have positive +ev if I continue to play this way means i will be a winner!!! ( well im hoping this is what it means!!!lol ) :P

      I really need to know about the BB question too!!!

      we must be thinking along the same path :P

      Roo
    • LudiCoka
      LudiCoka
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      Joined: 01.06.2009 Posts: 266
      EV in EV line means "estimated value". It is a mathematical calculation of how much money will you earn/lose in the long run going all-in the way you do.

      Let's say you go all-in preflop for 5$ with A:sA:diamond: vs K:sK:diamond: and you lose it. You had 82,637% chance to win this hand and therefore you EV winnings are 0,82637*10 (10 is for $10 as you and your opponent put $5 in pot) which equals 8,27$. And you have lost 5$. Because of that your EV line is 13,27$ above your winnings line now. Basically if your EV line keeps going up on your graph, you are playing good and should continue, you will be winning in the long run.

      Offcourse, that line never shows failed bluffs and much more situations which you can't really calculate that simply, so its results should be taken with reservation.

      BB means big bet and it originaly comes from limit poker. It equals to 2*bb (big blind). If you are playing on NL5 BB=0,10$.

      If your EV line is 800BB above your winnings line it means you should have won 1600 big blinds more than you actually did (mathematically).
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
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      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Originally posted by LudiCoka
      If your EV line is 800BB above your winnings line it means you should have won 1600 big blinds more than you actually did (mathematically).
      Just to correct you a bit, it's not what you should have won, thinking like that leads to whining posts in downswing forums imo.

      It's the amount you would win(not should have won) on average if you would repeat same hands a lot of times.
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      thanks guys really great info!!!

      does this mean that op really should be down 800 bb? :(
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
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      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Originally posted by roopopper
      does this mean that op really should be down 800 bb? :(
      No :) It means that he won 800BB less than he would win on average if he would play same hands, same way again :)
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      so this basically mean that I play with edge but being fukked? :D

      coz I feel that way.. Just todays hands were really outrageous.. I've read somewhere that normal swings are 50 or 500BBs?
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      I mean I get it in usualy in good and they hit 5 outs like it was supposed to be.. 14 card decks or what. LOL
    • LudiCoka
      LudiCoka
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      Joined: 01.06.2009 Posts: 266
      I might be wrong, but if it says -800BB than you sucked out a few times and have actually won 800BB's more than mathematical chances are. There are so many different stats that I get lost in these prefixes, but "-" usually means you're doing bad. Look at a graph, it's the best way to know for sure.
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      My all-in EV is about five buyins ABOVE my winrate. I figured out some time ago that that means I'm on a downswing and taking more than my share of bad beats. Significantly, my winrate is below break even but my all-in EV is above it. Does that mean that, over the long term, I'm really a winning player? I'm not sure whether there's any reason why the winrate and all-in EV lines _must_ converge over the long term. I mean, aren't some players just chronically unlucky and below all-in EV for their entire playing careers, while some are above?
    • roopopper
      roopopper
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      Joined: 31.12.2010 Posts: 4,289
      Originally posted by belayd
      My all-in EV is about five buyins ABOVE my winrate. I figured out some time ago that that means I'm on a downswing and taking more than my share of bad beats. Significantly, my winrate is below break even but my all-in EV is above it. Does that mean that, over the long term, I'm really a winning player? I'm not sure whether there's any reason why the winrate and all-in EV lines _must_ converge over the long term. I mean, aren't some players just chronically unlucky and below all-in EV for their entire playing careers, while some are above?
      i would say statistically you are just running bad as your ev line indicates, im sure eventually your winnings line will catch up, but it could be in 100 hands 1000 hands or even 10000000 hands!!! :P

      Statisically what are the chances of you running chronically bad!!!



      :P
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      Joined: 14.06.2009 Posts: 506
      then strangely I must be doing something wrong. But find what when I've got over 60k hands to analyse :f_biggrin:

      I am losing player so far so.. This doesn't make much sense to me.. Hmmm. Nevermind :) Atleast thank you for clearing up the situation. I had feel that I am running bad :D
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      It's important to remember that you can't say "I ran bad, look at my ev line"

      So many other things come into consideration.. for example there is no scale or no graph to show you coolering your opponents, you are running good that you had the top of your range whilst he was in the low/medium, on another day you could lose 10 times through coolers and win one flip and your graph would say that you've "ran well".
    • mattisks
      mattisks
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      so how can I improve if I am supposed to ignore all the stats :D
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      Originally posted by pleno1
      It's important to remember that you can't say "I ran bad, look at my ev line"

      So many other things come into consideration.. for example there is no scale or no graph to show you coolering your opponents, you are running good that you had the top of your range whilst he was in the low/medium, on another day you could lose 10 times through coolers and win one flip and your graph would say that you've "ran well".
      Hi, pleno,

      Thanks for pointing out some of the limitations of the all-in EV stat. I've heard that the experts are polarized on its value, with some saying that it's an important stat while others argue that it's worthless.

      What would you say if my all-in EV is five buyins above my winline, my non-showdown winnings are about a full buyin above zero (and climbing) and my showdown winnings are about three buyins below zero?
    • pleno1
      pleno1
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      Hey Belayd,

      How many hands are we talking?
    • belayd
      belayd
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      Joined: 17.03.2011 Posts: 1,021
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Hey Belayd,

      How many hands are we talking?
      About 7K.